Real Estate Information Archive

Good Monday Morning!

Locally and nationally, new home starts have taken a huge hit as of late. Housing starts are off in large numbers, and this is one of the key indicators as to where our local and national economy is currently at. In Lane County, building permits for new construction are at a standstill.  Just look around at the number of new houses you see under construction. It is minimal. We are experiencing low housing starts, and at the same time, our nation has never had a larger shortage of housing. A sluggish economy, high mortgage interest rates, the high cost of land, high building material costs, high labor costs, high SDC charges, high property taxes, and expensive homeowner insurance have all contributed to the crash in new home construction. The remedy for this situation is complex, and most likely we will not see a rapid change in new home construction numbers any time soon. Lower inflation numbers and a decline in mortgage loan interest rates would be a good start to bringing back our new home industry. The following is an article from "Realtor.com" that talks about the decline in new home starts nationally.

The numbers: Construction of new U.S. homes fell 14.8% in January as home builders scaled back new projects.

The pace of construction slowed as builders curtailed their activity amid wintry weather in the U.S. in January.

Housing starts fell to a 1.33 million annual pace from 1.56 million in December, the government said Friday. That’s how many houses would be built over an entire year if construction took place at the same rate every month as it did in January.

Housing starts fell to the lowest level since August 2023.

The drop in January was the sharpest since April 2020, during the coronavirus pandemic, when starts fell by nearly 27%. Not including that pandemic drop, housing starts fell by the most since 2015.

The data fell short of expectations on Wall Street, where the expected rate was 1.45 million. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

Single-family and multi-family construction fell in January, with the latter registering a nearly 36% drop.

But in a more recent survey of builders in January, builders were upbeat about future sales of new homes and optimistic about demand, as they expect interest rates to fall through the rest of the year.

Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 1.5% to a 1.47 million rate.

Key details: Builders scaled back construction of new single-family homes, leading to a 4.7% drop, as well as apartments, which fell 35.8%.

The only region where builders increased construction was the Northeast, where single-family starts rose 26.7%. Every other region posted a drop in January.

Permits for single-family homes rose 1.6% in January, while apartment permits fell 9%.

Big picture: Housing starts are generally a volatile data series, but the data indicate that that builders slowed down construction of new homes in January.

But most builders are optimistic about the future, as seen in a recent survey, and expect falling mortgage rates to boost home-buying demand.

Meanwhile, builders continue to benefit from the tailwind that is the persistent shortage of previously owned homes. While new homes only formed a tenth of overall sales historically, that share has jumped to 30%, the National Association of Home Builders told MarketWatch.

What are they saying? “Housing starts fell by the largest amount since April 2020 in January, led by a huge drop in multi-family starts. We suspect the multi-family sector will continue to be a drag on new development this year, given the huge number of multi-family units already under construction,” Thomas Ryan, property economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

“The sharp pullback in starts could reflect bad weather in January,” Ali Jaffery at CIBC Economics, wrote in a note. But as mortgage rates inch up, “housing activity should remain weak until the Fed signals a more clear intent to ease policy,” he said.

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

4391 N Shasta Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $450,000    Beds: 4    Baths: 2.5    SqFt: 2154

This diamond in the rough is perfect for an investor looking for a project or an owner looking to create their own oasis in a quiet South Eugene neighborhood. This is an eclectic home from the 1970's with natural wood, vaulted ceilings and great sep...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

The January 2024 Real Estate market in the Eugene and Springfield area improved some over December 2023 but decreased from January 2023. All categories were off from one year ago. The only real positive news is that the inventory of homes for sale is creeping up. Interest rates took a dip for a short period of time in December and January, but have inched back up as of late. The outlook for an improved housing market right now hinges on mortgage interest rates declining again and an improvement in our nation's economy. A bright spot right now is that, with the improved housing inventory, we are having a much easier time finding homes for our clients. We are also finding many sellers who are more motivated and willing to pitch in with paying buyers closing costs, etc. This is something that we have not seen happen in years. There is always a bright spot if you look for it. The following are the home sales numbers for Lane County for the month of January 2024.

New Listings

New listings (283) decreased 6.6% from the 303 listed in January 2023, and increased 59.9% from the 177 listed in December 2023.

Pending Sales

Pending sales (258) decreased 14.9% from the 303 offers accepted in January 2023, and increased 24.0% from the 208 offers accepted in December 2023.

Closed Sales

Closed sales (173) decreased 2.3% from the 177 closings in January 2023, and decreased 19.5% from the 215 closings in December 2023.

Inventory and Time on Market

Inventory increased to 3.2 months in January. Total market time increased to 68 days.

Year-to-Date Summary

Comparing the first month of 2024 to the same period in 2023, new listings (283) decreased 6.6%, pending sales (258) decreased 14.9%, and closed sales (173) decreased 2.3%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2024 to 2023 through January, the average sale price has decreased 2.1% from $470,600 to $460,800. In the same comparison, the median sale price has decreased 1.0% from $419,000 to $415,000.

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

4927 Morely Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $330,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 1518

This updated home is on its own lot & doesn't have any HOA fees. It's located on a quiet street with a treed view in the backyard. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, skylight in the kitchen, laminate flooring and vinyl windows. Sliding French ba...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

After years of historically low mortgage interest rates, the Fed began a systematic increase in rates, which in turn influenced the mortgage market and sent rates soaring. Mortgage rates peaked in the Fall of 2023 before they began to subside in the Winter of 2023. Today, rates have declined significantly, and there are mixed thoughts as to where mortgage rates may be headed in 2024. The following article from NAR gives their opinion on the 2024 mortgage rate situation. Only time will tell, but one thing is most likely for sure, and that is that we most likely won't see a return of 8% mortgage rates in 2024. This is great, but further declines in mortgage rates in 2024 would be even better.

Although the Fed’s rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, it often influences them

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, anticipates mortgage rates to remain in the 6% range for most of the year. “While this is certainly higher than the historic lows seen in 2020 and 2021, this is lower than the historical norm of 7.74%,” Lautz says.

With less volatility in mortgage rates, consumers may feel more confident to resume house hunting. Last fall, mortgage rates surged to nearly 8%, shaking buyer confidence and causing home sales to dip. This week’s 6.63% average translates to about $251 less for a typical monthly mortgage payment compared to fall when rates hit a peak, Lautz says.

Mortgage rates have held relatively stable for nearly two months, which is bringing more buyers back into the housing market, says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Further, “the economy continues to outperform due to solid job and income growth, while household formation is increasing at rates above pre-pandemic levels,” he says. “These favorable factors should provide fundamental support to the market in the months ahead.”

Lower mortgage rates are helping to improve housing affordability, adds NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Pending home sales rose 8.3% in December and are now higher than a year ago, NAR’s latest housing report shows.

Homeowners also may find more incentive to sell. “Many delayed home sellers may be willing to give up 3% to 4% rates as life circumstances have changed, thereby boosting inventory,” Yun says. “Home sales will no doubt rise this year.” NAR is forecasting a 13% increase in existing-home sales compared to 2023. That rising trend is expected to continue into 2025, with another 15.8% uptick, NAR notes.

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1011 S 8th Street, Cottage Grove, OR 

Price: $345,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 1.0    SqFt: 1008

This adorable single level home was completely remodeled in 2019 and has been refreshed from top-to-bottom! Updates include a 30-year composite roof, vinyl windows and laminate flooring. The kitchen is open to the family room and has been tastefully...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

Does a change in mortgage interest rates have an effect on home sales? You bet it does! Inflation in home prices over the past several years has made home ownership an impossibility for many would be home buyers. The high cost of homes was compensated for over the past years by record breaking low mortgage interest rates. When rates began to rise but home prices remained steady and even increased, the ability to purchase a home for many faded away. Even though mortgage rates are higher than they were even a year ago, they have dropped from their peak in the Fall of 2023. Even a 1% rate decrease has spurred interest and made home payments more affordable. The question we have is whether rates will decline further, hold steady, or maybe even rise again. The answer here depends on what happens with our national economy. Mortgage rates need to decline further to heat up our economy again, but this could bring back high inflation rates. Higher inflation rates could put the brakes on any further mortgage interest rate decreases. It's going to be interesting! Stay tuned! The following is an article from "Realtor.com" that talks about the present housing market.

The numbers: U.S. pending home sales shot up in December as falling mortgage rates brought buyers back into the market.

Pending home sales rose 8.3% in December from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Friday by the National Association of Realtors.

Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for a the sale of an existing home, but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.

The jump in pending-home sales was the largest since June 2020, when it rose by 14.9%.

The sales pace exceeded expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to increase by 2% in December.

Transactions were up 1.3% from last year.

The NAR also released an updated forecast for existing-home sales on Friday. The group expects existing-home sales to increase in 2024 by 13% from last year, to a 4.62 million pace.

They expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times in 2024 and the 30-year mortgage to “bounce along” in the 6% to 7% range for most of the year.

Big picture: The increases in contract signings and in mortgage applications, reported earlier in the week, indicate that there is pent-up demand from buyers who are motivated by falling mortgage rates.

But the housing market’s recovery is still limited by supply. Unless the so-called lock-in effect fades and more homeowners decide to sell their homes, sales will not be able to increase significantly.

What the realtors said: “The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement.

“Job additions and income growth will further help with housing affordability, but increased supply will be essential to satisfying all potential demand,” he added.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

2434 E Irwin Way, Eugene, OR 

Price: $365,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1056

This single level ranch style home is located on a quiet street near Irwin Park and the Golden Garden Pond. RV parking and an attached 2-car garage with built-in storage. Vinyl windows, newer carpet & vinyl, large fenced yard with a patio...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

Here we are in early 2024 and has anything really changed with the housing market, both here in the Eugene and Springfield area and nationally? The answer is a flat, NO! But, I believe we are on the edge of change and it could start showing more in the next few months if the prediction of falling mortgage interest rates become reality. This will be very positive, but there is a black cloud hanging over all national housing markets. That black cloud is inflation. Even with a slower market, home prices have continued to increase and with a faster paced market potentially on  the horizon, it could fuel inflation in home prices even further. Typically, when we see a slower market with less demand, we see home prices decline and in our current market, we should have seen sharp declines in home prices. This just has not been the case. The issue here is that rising home prices will continue to keep many first time home buyers out of the market. It is important to remember that all housing market booms are created by affordable housing and a surge in home sales to first time home buyers. The following is a recent article from "NAR", that talks about the recent housing market nationally and regionally.

Existing-home sales likely bottomed out in December, says NAR’s chief economist, who predicts brighter days ahead.Existing-home sales fell to their lowest level in nearly 30 years in December—but that didn’t cool red-hot home prices, with the median price reaching an all-time high of $389,800, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Friday.

Existing-home sales—which include completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops—declined 1% month over month in December and are down 6.2% compared to a year earlier, NAR’s latest sales index shows. But lower mortgage rates, which are now below historical norms, likely will set the stage for stronger sales in 2024, NAR predicts.

“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in the upcoming months.”

But home buyers nationwide are still facing a dearth of options. Total housing inventory at the end of December was down 11.5% from November, remaining at historical lows. Many would-be sellers are reluctant to trade in their super-low mortgage rates from just a couple of years ago and make a move at today’s higher rates and home prices. This “lock-in effect” has been blamed for subduing housing inventory, along with sluggish new-home construction that economists say isn’t keeping pace with demographic needs. 

With home prices continuing to surge, homeowners are watching their equity grow. Yun says 85 million homeowners saw gains in housing wealth last month. The average U.S. homeowner with a mortgage has built more than $300,000 in equity since their purchase date, according to CoreLogic’s equity report. 

However, “the recent rapid, three-year rise in home prices is unsustainable,” Yun says. “If prices continue at the current pace, the country could accelerate into ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots.’ Creating a path towards homeownership for today’s renters is essential. It requires economic and income growth and, most importantly, a steady buildup of home construction.”

Homes Still Selling Fast, More Inventory Coming

Builders are trying to ramp up construction, but there are production swings from month to month. Housing construction fell 4.3% in December but remains above 1 million units, the Commerce Department reported this week. Single-family housing permits—a gauge of future construction—posted an uptick last month, indicating that more new inventory is on the way. Still, it’s likely to be a challenging year for new-home construction due to higher mortgage rates and tight monetary policy, says Alicia Huey, chair of the National Association of Home Builders.

“Moderating mortgage rates are expected to provide a boost to new-home construction in 2024, but an uptick in building material prices and a shortage of buildable lots and skilled labor are serious challenges for home builders,” adds Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis.

In the existing-home market, homes continue to sell fast. Fifty-eight percent of those sold in December were on the market for less than a month, NAR’s latest research data shows. NAR has predicted a stronger housing market for 2024. Here are more key housing indicators from NAR’s December report:

•  Days on the market: Properties typically remained on the market for 29 days, up slightly from 26 days a year earlier.
•  First-time home buyers: First-time home buyers comprised 29% of sales, down from 31% in November.
•  All-cash sales: All-cash sales comprised 29% of transactions, up slightly from last year’s 28%. Individual investors and second-home buyers make up the biggest bulk of all-cash sales, accounting for 16%, NAR’s data shows.

Regional Breakdown

The following is a closer look at how existing-home sales fared across the country in December:

•  Northeast: Sales remained flat compared to November but were down 9.6% compared to a year earlier. Median price: $428,100, up 9.4% from the previous year.
•  Midwest: Sales fell 4.3% from the prior month, reaching an annual rate of 900,000. Sales are down 10.9% from last year. Median price: $275,600, up 5.9% from December 2022.
•  South: Sales fell 2.8% from November to an annual rate of 1.72 million. Sales are down 4.4% when compared to the prior year. Median price: $352,100, up 3.8% from one year ago.
•  West: Sales rose 7.8% from a month ago, reaching an annual rate of 690,000 in December. Sales are down 1.4% from the year prior. Median price: $582,000, up 4.8% from December 2022.     

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1879 Adelman Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $445,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.5    SqFt: 1888

This adorable home is turnkey ready and features an open two-story floor plan, that's nestled in a charming neighborhood, with close proximity to a park. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers an open concept with a large living space that leads to th...View this property >> 

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Good cold and icy Monday Morning!

Overall, home sales in Lane County were off in December of 2023. A sluggish housing market remained in place, even with slightly lower mortgage interest rates. We saw a short spurt of activity in early December fade as we approached the Holidays. What will 2024 bring? There is a potential for a much improved housing market in Lane County if mortgage interest rates decline further and the Fed remains steady or even drops rates. This is an unknown presently and only time will tell. The overall economy needs to improve as well and inflation numbers need to decline. Without all of these pieces falling in place, don’t look for any substantial changes in our local housing market. The following is a look at home sales in Lane County for December 2023.

New Listings

New listings (177) increased 1.1% from the 175 listed in December 2022, and decreased 43.5% from the 313 listed in November 2023.

Pending Sales

Pending sales (208) increased 5.6% from the 197 offers accepted in December 2022, and decreased 11.9% from the 236 offers accepted in November 2023.

Closed Sales

Closed sales (215) decreased 8.1% from the 234 closings in December 2022, and decreased 13.0% from the 247 closings in November 2023.

Inventory and Time on Market

Inventory decreased to 2.7 months in December. Total market time decreased to 50 days.

Year-to-Date Summary

Comparing the twelve months of 2023 to the same period in 2022, new listings (4,738) decreased 12.0%, pending sales (3,614) decreased 27.5%, and closed sales (3,561) decreased 21.5%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2023 to 2022 through December, the average sale price has decreased 1.0% from $475,400 to $470,600. In the same comparison, the median sale price has decreased 0.7% from $436,000 to $432,900.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1879 Adelman Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $445,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.5    SqFt: 1888

This adorable home is turnkey ready and features an open two-story floor plan, that's nestled in a charming neighborhood, with close proximity to a park. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers an open concept with a large living space that leads to th...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

Both Pending and Closed sales have continued to decline both nationally and here in the Eugene Springfield area. We are now in 2024 and what will the national and local housing market be like this year? There is some light coming through this tough Real Estate market as we have watched mortgage interest rates decline slightly. The forecast is that rates will continue to decline over the next several months. If rates do decline, then look for both pending and closed home sales to do an about-face and begin to bounce back. The rate and amount of any recovery here will depend upon the extent of the mortgage rate reductions. I will keep you updated as we move forward. The following is a short article from "Realtor.com".

The numbers: Pending home sales were flat in November compared with the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The Pending Home Sales Index remained at 71.6 in November from the prior month.

Economists were expecting the index to rise 1% in November, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal.

Year-on-year, pending home sales are down 5.2%.

Key details: Sales were up in the Northeast, Midwest and West in November but dropped in the South.

Big picture: Pending home sales tend to lead existing home sales by a month or two. They have been on a downward trend this year.

With mortgage rates having declined over the past two months, economists see a modest rebound in home sales ahead.

This could cause housing inflation to remain elevated, complicating the Fed’s job to get inflation down to 2%, said Torsten Slock, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

What the NAR said: “Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, in a statement along with the data.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

2434 E Irwin Way, Eugene, OR 

Price: $365,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1056

This single level ranch style home is located on a quiet street near Irwin Park and the Golden Garden Pond. RV parking and an attached 2-car garage with built-in storage. Vinyl windows, newer carpet & vinyl, large fenced yard with a patio. Schedule...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

Home sales in the Eugene and Springfield area decreased in November of 2023. This is a continuation of the trend we have seen over the past several months. The cause of the slump continues to be the same conditions, higher mortgage interest rates, a sagging economy, low inventory of homes for sale and lack of consumer confidence. As of late, mortgage interest rates have trickled down slightly. If we can see a continuation of declining mortgage interest rates, we may see our local housing market begin to rebound. Here are the Eugene and Springfield area home sales statistics for November 2023.

New Listings

New listings (313) increased 23.2% from the 254 listed in November 2022, and decreased 15.9% from the 372 listed in October 2023.

Pending Sales

Pending sales (236) increased 14.0% from the 207 offers accepted in November 2022, and decreased 21.1% from the 299 offers accepted in October 2023.

Closed Sales

Closed sales (247) decreased 4.3% from the 258 closings in November 2022, and decreased 15.1% from the 291 closings in October 2023.

Inventory and Time on Market

Inventory increased to 2.9 months in November. Total market time increased to 52 days.

Year-to-Date Summary

Comparing the first eleven months of 2023 to the same period in 2022, new listings (4,546) decreased 12.6%, pending sales (3,421) decreased 18.2%, and closed sales (3,331) decreased 22.4%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2023 to 2022 through November, the average sale price has decreased 0.6% from $476,600 to $473,600. In the same comparison, the median sale price has decreased 0.3% from $436,500 to $435,000.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

82499 Rattlesnake Rd, Dexter, OR 

Price: $565,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 2260

View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

Finally, some relief for homebuyers? In a world where everything has seemed to be against homebuyers as of late, a few things are happening that may lead to an improved purchase environment in the months ahead. Did the Fed get carried away with rate increases? It seems that maybe this has been the case and the result as we have witnessed has been the crash of our nations housing market. High interest rates, high inflation and a recession environment have all been against home buyers. My perdiction is that the housing market will not return to a great environment for home buyers in the coming year, but we may see some improvement. The following article details this scenario.

Mortgage rates continued to drop this week. It’s the fifth straight week rates have moved lower.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average of 7.22% in the week ending November 30, down from 7.29% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the average 30-year fixed-rate was 6.49%.

“Market sentiment has significantly shifted over the last month, leading to a continued decline in mortgage rates,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

“The current trajectory of rates is an encouraging development for potential homebuyers, with purchase application activity recently rising to the same level as mid-September when rates were similar to today’s levels,” he said.

Khater added that the modest uptick in demand over the last month suggests that there will likely be more competition in a market that still remains starved for inventory.

The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. A current buyer’s rate may be different.

The average rate jumped above 7% in mid-August and kept rising for seven straight weeks, reaching as high as 7.79% at the end of October. But the recent declines could be a sign that mortgage rates have peaked for this cycle.

All eyes on the Fed

Inflation has dropped significantly due to the Federal Reserve’s historic rate hikes over the past two years, helping to bring down mortgage rates.

But investors and analysts are eying the upcoming Fed meeting on December 12-13 to see if additional rate hikes are needed — and the direction of future mortgage rate movements.

“While some Federal Reserve policymakers expressed growing confidence that the existing monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to reduce inflation to the 2% target, others emphasized the potential necessity for additional rate hikes to achieve the target over a reasonable timeframe,” said Jiayi Xu, an economist at Realtor.com.

Even with mixed messages from the Fed, many investors seem to think that the central bank has concluded its interest rate hike cycle, Xu said, especially considering the 10-year yield dropped below 4.3% for the first time since September.

While the Fed does not set the interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages directly, its actions influence them. Mortgage rates track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, which move based on anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed ends up doing and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

Home affordability worsened in October but is expected to improve in 2024

Homebuyers are slowly coming off the sidelines as mortgage rates come down and affordability could improve a bit in the coming year.

“The good news for prospective homebuyers is that affordability is expected to turn around in 2024, though at a slower pace, through a combination of lower mortgage rates and lower prices brought about by cooling inflation and a less frenzied housing market,” Xu said.

With a shift in the mortgage rate trend from a general increase to a general decrease, there is a likelihood that consumers may no longer feel the urgency to make hasty decisions,” she said.

As a result of rates trending down, there was a slight increase in applications overall for the week ending on November 24, driven by a 5% increase in purchase applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Rates have declined 50 basis points over the past five weeks, which has helped to spur a small increase in purchase applications, but activity last week was still roughly 20% lower than a year ago, said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.

“The purchase market remains depressed because of the ongoing low supply of existing homes on the market,” Kan said. “Similarly, refinance activity will likely be muted for some time, even with the recent decline in rates, as many borrowers locked in much lower rates in 2020 and 2021.”

But for current buyers, typical monthly mortgage payments rose in October making affording a home an even bigger challenge, according to a separate study from MBA.

The national median mortgage payment anticipated by those applying for a loan to buy a home increased to $2,199 a month from $2,155 in September, according to MBA. And that’s a 9.3% increase from a year ago, amounting to a $143 jump in the monthly payment.

Rates are expected to cool off in the coming year but perhaps not by as much as buyers would like.

According to a forecast from Realtor.com, the average mortgage rate is projected to be 6.8% in the next year. That is not expected to improve the inventory picture much, said Xu.

“As mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated, current homeowners with low mortgage rates are expected to stay put, leading to a decline in for-sale inventory,” said Xu.

Meanwhile, she said, since affordability is expected to remain a top concern for homebuyers, the outlook for home sales next year is projected to remain steady at lower levels.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

2434 E Irwin Way, Eugene, OR 

Price: $365,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1056

This single level ranch style home is located on a quiet street near Irwin Park and the Golden Garden Pond. RV parking and an attached 2-car garage with built-in storage. Vinyl windows, newer carpet & vinyl, large fenced yard with a patio...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

The month of October saw home sales continue to slide in the Eugene and Springfield area. Also, the number of homes on the market for sale increased. Mortgage rates also declines and the Fed decided to not have another interest rate increase at this time. All of this is good news for home buyers, who have had a rough time with the high interest rates, low housing inventory and high home prices. Right now the questions remains as to where are we headed in the months in front of us and in the year 2024? Many economists are now predicting a continuation of lower mortgage interest rates. If this takes place, it could bring on a much improved market heading into the new year and in the first quarter of 2024. There are many moving parts here, with one of them being the questionable local and national economy. At this time, we can only hope that we see an improving housing market here in Eugene and Springfield. I will keep you updated as we move forward. The following is an article from "Realtor.com that talks about the October 2023 national housing market.

Home sales fell in October to a fresh 13-year low as high interest rates and home prices continued to pummel the housing market.

Home-buying affordability sits near its lowest level in decades, pushing many buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales for the full year in 2023 are on track to be the lowest since at least 2011, according to economist forecasts.

Existing-home sales, which make up most of the housing market, decreased 4.1% in October from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million, the lowest rate since August 2010, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. October sales fell 14.6% from a year earlier. Sales have been near 2010 levels in recent months.

Even as home-buying demand has slumped, the inventory of homes for sale has stayed low. High rates are making homeowners unwilling to sell and move, because they don’t want to give up their existing low interest rates. The limited supply is a major reason that home prices are rising in much of the U.S.

The national median existing-home price rose 3.4% in October from a year earlier to $391,800, NAR said. That was the highest price for any October in data going back to 1999. Prices aren’t adjusted for inflation.

“Lack of inventory along with higher mortgage rates are really hindering home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

This year’s housing-market slowdown is due to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation and cool the economy by raising its benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high. The Fed last raised rates in July. Since then, officials have extended a pause in rate increases and are very likely to do so again next month.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal ahead of the release had estimated that sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in October from the prior month.

Mortgage rates climbed to fresh two-decade highs this fall before falling in recent weeks. Homes typically go under contract a month or two before the contracts close, so the October data largely reflect purchase decisions made in August and September.

While mortgage rates have declined since late October, buyers might have already decided to pause their home searches until after the holiday season, said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

“The surge in rates in October might have caused a lot of households to sort of end their home search for 2023,” she said. “At this point, they might just wait until the spring.”

Nationally, there were 1.15 million homes for sale or under contract at the end of October, up 1.8% from September and down 5.7% from October 2022, NAR said. That was the lowest inventory level for any October in data going back to 1999, Yun said. At the current sales pace, there was a 3.6-month supply of homes on the market at the end of October.

Blaine and Jennifer Nelson found little inventory to choose from as they shopped for their first home this summer. They also had to revise their budget lower as mortgage rates went up.

“On a weekly basis, we were kind of reevaluating…based on where mortgage rates were that week,” Blaine Nelson said.

The Nelsons had their third offer accepted for a four-bedroom house in the St. Paul, Minn., area and the purchase closed in October. “We’re happy just to have a place and to not be going through this stressful experience,” Blaine Nelson said.

The typical home sold in October was on the market for 23 days, up from 21 days a year earlier, NAR said.

Marianne and Elias Doty tried to buy a bigger house for their growing family last year, but they gave up after losing out on several offers to higher bidders. This fall, they found a seven-bedroom house in Sandy, Utah, and bought it in October for about 9% under the listing price. They listed their starter home in Sandy for sale, received four offers and sold it at the listing price.

“It certainly seemed like I had more power as a buyer,” Elias Doty said. Unlike last year, when buyers had to make offers as quickly as possible, “we were able to ponder on this for a whole week,” he said.

About 29% of October existing-home sales were purchased in cash, up from 26% in the same month a year ago, NAR said.

A measure of U.S. home-builder confidence fell in November for the fourth straight month, the National Association of Home Builders said last week.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

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