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Good Monday Morning!

Here in the Eugene and Springfield area, we are seeing homes sales numbers decline. August saw the largest decline in home sales that we have had in years. The question at this time is whether this trend shall continue through the Fall months and into Winter? With future rate increases from the Fed likely, we may see a continued slowing housing market both here locally and nationally. The good news locally is that with the continued low inventory of homes for sale, the price of homes selling has remained fairly strong. The following is an article from "Realtor.com" that goes over the recent decline in housing sales nationally.

The numbers: U.S. home sales in August fell to the lowest level since January 2023.

A low number of home listings and high interest rates brought down sales of previously owned homes, which fell by 0.7% to an annual rate of 4.04 million in August, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

That’s the number of homes that would be sold over an entire year if sales took place at the same rate in every month as they did in August. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

Sales activity for the month of August was at the lowest since 2010, during the Great Recession.

The drop in sales fell short of what economists on Wall Street had expected. They had forecast existing-home sales to total 4.1 million in August.

Compared with August 2022, home sales are down by 15.3%. Between January and August alone, sales fell 21%.

Key details: The median price for an existing home in August was $407,100, up 3.9% from a year ago. That was the highest price for the month of August since the NAR began tracking the data.

Home prices peaked in June 2022, when the median price of a resale home hit $413,800.

Around 31% of properties are being sold above list price, the NAR noted.

The total number of homes for sale in August fell by 14.1% from last year, to 1.1 million units. Housing inventory for the month of August was the lowest since the NAR began tracking the figure in 1999.

Homes listed for sale remained on the market for 20 days on average, unchanged from the previous month. Last August, homes were only on the market for an average of 16 days.

Sales of existing homes across the country were up only in the Midwest, by 1%. The median price of a resale home in the region was $305,300.

All-cash buyers made up 27% of sales. The share of individual investors or second-home buyers was 16%. About 29% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers.

Big picture: Home buyers today are facing an unfriendly housing market, due to the twin challenges of high mortgage rates and low inventory. Competition for a limited number of listings, along with rising home prices and higher borrowing costs, are making homeownership much more expensive and slowing the sector.

Even though buyers are not as sensitive to rates as before, as evidenced from a small uptick in purchase applications in the latest week, most experts say a drop in rates will be what prompts an increase in housing supply and improves affordability.

What the National Association of Realtors said: “It’s possible that mortgage rates may go up to 8% in the short run,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR.

Yun explained that rates could go substantially higher, based on how the 10-year rate was trending toward exceeding 4.5%. If rates go up, that could push home sales to a new low in the upcoming months, he added.

Yun also noted that a potential government shutdown and the expiration of the National Flood Insurance Program are also big concerns that could hurt sales further.

What are they saying? “All of the momentum for the housing market early in 2023 has evaporated in the face of rising mortgage rates. 2023 could end in a whimper for the real estate sector as any substantial pull back in rates is likely far off into 2024,” Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide, said in a statement.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

2127 Silver Lea Ct, Eugene, OR 

Price: $625,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.5    SqFt: 2018

This single level ranch style home is located in a wonderful cul-de-sac and a short distance to the brand-new North Eugene High School. The covered front porch welcomes you to this turnkey home that has been tastefully upgraded throughout. New LED...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Home Ownership Is A Tough Proposition For First Time Home Buyers

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

Today, in this current Eugene and Springfield area Real Estate market, home ownership is a tough proposition for first time home buyers. Just a few years ago, this was not the case. Today with the continued escalation of home prices, the quick rise in mortgage interest rates and an inflationary economy, the dream of owning a home for most first time buyers is quickly becoming out of reach. Home ownership has always been the cornerstone of the American Dream and now this dream is fading. The following article from "Realtor.com" is a great piece and for anyone thinking about purchasing a new home or those who have been attempting their first home purchase, this article will relate very well to your experince.

Every morning, first-time buyer Anthony Valenti wakes up and then checks to see if any new homes have come onto the market in the Hartford, CT, area.

Valenti, 29, has been looking for a house to share with his fiancée since the spring of last year. The couple, both nurses at local hospitals, have been living with their parents to save money for their down payment.

They started their home search in the $300,000 range and quickly realized that there wasn’t much available at that price. Despite higher mortgage rates topping 7%, they adjusted their budgets and are now in the $400,000-plus range. But there aren’t many move-in ready, three-bedroom, two-bathroom homes with a two-car garage available.

He recently lost his first bidding war to another buyer who made a cash offer that was more than $75,000 over the list price.

“When the prices are at this point, you’re not getting your bang for your buck. Houses that are 1,200 square feet are going for crazy amounts of money,” says Valenti. “We want somewhat of a turnkey house. I don’t want to come home from a 12-hour shift and start laying tile.”

Valenti’s predicament is typical of what most first-time buyers are facing: Entry-level homes no longer come with entry-level prices.

First-time buyers are facing a housing market in which the median home list prices have shot up 38%, mortgage rates have roughly doubled, and the housing shortage has only worsened over the past four years, according to Realtor.com® and Freddie Mac data.

The monthly mortgage payment on a typical home has more than doubled since 2019. And first-time buyers are competing with cash-flush investors and wealthier, repeat buyers.

The competition from other buyers is particularly fierce for smaller, lower-priced starter homes—because, for many, that’s all they can afford. These entry-level homes have traditionally been most first-time buyers’ entrée to the American dream.

The traditional pattern: Buyers live in these cheaper homes for a while, building wealth that can be used to finance their next nicer/newer/larger home purchase, or to pass along to future generations.

But today, many first-time homebuyers who would have been able to purchase a starter home just a few years ago can no longer afford to do so. Even homes priced within the budgets of young couples can quickly become out of reach amid a bidding war.

Bu general consensus, just a few years ago, starter homes were generally defined as costing below $200,000. Today, they’re generally closer to $400,000, says Ali Wolf, chief economist of building consultancy Zonda. Buyers who don’t earn more than the median income in their area often can’t afford them.

“For people who haven’t already purchased a home, the chance of becoming a homeowner has gotten a lot harder,” she says. “A starter home may not be within reach for many Americans.”

In January 2019, households earning below $75,000 could afford about half of the homes on the market, according to the Urban Institute, a think tank. Four years later, they could afford just 25%.

“Now, owning a home has become a luxury,” says Wolf.

Valenti initially wanted to buy before the COVID-19 pandemic, but then prices shot up. So he decided to wait for them to come down. Instead, prices remained high and then mortgage rates shot up.

“Never in a million years did I think I would be 30 years old and still living with my parents,” he says. “Plan B will be to rent something. In a year, [my fiancee and I will] be married.”

A first-time buyer’s success can be tied to where they’re looking

A young person’s chance of becoming a homeowner isn’t dependent only on how much money they make and if their family and friends can help them out financially. It also depends on where they’re looking.

First-time buyers in the Des Moines, IA, area are still able to become homeowners—but local real estate agent Beth Van Zee isn’t sure how much longer that can last.

Before the pandemic, first-time buyers could find a three-bedroom, two-bathroom ranch home on a quarter-acre in the city limits, she says. Now, those same homes are selling from $250,000 to $275,000.

First-time buyers “just have to lower their expectations,” says Van Zee, with Coldwell Banker Mid-America. “They’re going to have to go out farther away from the metro.”

In 2021, when mortgage rates bottomed out, those making less than the median income of the area could afford a home in Huntsville, AL, says local real estate broker Matt Curtis.

“Now, the median income cannot afford the median home in our area,” he says.

Many Huntsville-area buyers are looking for ways to save money. They’re purchasing properties with multiple bedrooms they can rent out or shopping for new construction so that the builders can buy down their mortgage rate. Others are buying homes that are farther from their jobs and where prices are lower.

Many 20- to 40-year-olds are leaving San Francisco and California’s Silicon Valley because it can be difficult to find a decent starter home for under $1 million, says Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst of the San Francisco Bay Area for Compass. Most of the area’s starter homes are condos.

“What may be a completely ordinary ranch-style house in most of the country that would sell for $300,000 or $400,000 or even less, here can go for $1.6 million to over $2 million,” says Carlisle. “That’s very challenging for first-time homebuyers.”

The costs of delaying a home purchase

While there are costs to buying a home, there are costs to delaying the purchase as well.

“Homeownership is a wealth builder for people, slowly over time. If you delay entry into homeownership, you delay the start of that wealth-building process,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.

Those who purchase homes earlier in life are more likely to have traded up into more expensive homes and have paid off their mortgages by retirement, says Jung Choi, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute.

During the pandemic, the record-low mortgage rates, in the mid-2% range, helped more first-time homebuyers become homeowners.

“The homeownership rate is significantly lower than the prior generation, which can have long-term implications on future wealth,” she says.

Today’s first-time buyers are spending larger shares of their income to become homeowners, says Hale. They’re also struggling to come up with down payments.

Rising rents and general inflation have hampered buyers’ efforts to save. Just 8% of buyers received family assistance, according to a recent survey of real estate agents conducted by John Burns Research & Consulting.

However, loans with lower down payments are less likely to be accepted by sellers if they have another offer with a higher down payment. That puts first-time buyers at a big disadvantage against investors and repeat buyers, who can use their home equity to help finance their next purchase.

“It’s a tough situation for buyers,” says Hale.

Becoming a homeowner isn’t impossible

While the American dream might seem to some to be just that, a dream, becoming a homeowner isn’t impossible.

Professionals with dual incomes, who waited to buy while they saved money and climbed the ladder within their fields, will have an easier time than younger buyers on a single income who are just starting out. And even those who are at the beginning of their careers are finding ways to make it happen.

Teegan Webster, 24, and her husband, 25, bought their first house last summer. The newly constructed, 1,500-square-foot house sits on a quarter of an acre in the small town of Cedar City, UT.

Webster, who has a young son and who works part time for an educational consulting company, began saving for a home when she was 15. Those savings helped her and her husband, a religious educator, to purchase their three-bedroom, two-bathroom home without family assistance.

Homeownership’s “been my dream my whole life,” says Webster. “We wanted to start building equity, and we were in the position to move and thought that it was the right time.”

Still, high home prices and rising mortgage interest rates were a challenge. They bid on three homes and prevailed on the third.

They offered the asking price and were surprised when their bid was accepted. The sellers were so eager to sell that they also paid for Webster’s closing costs and bought down her mortgage rate temporarily for two years.

While she loves her new home, she acknowledges that it’s not everything she ever dreamed of having in a home.

“For a first house, you’re not going to buy your dream home,” says Webster.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

24842 Kingpin Loop, Veneta, OR 

Price: $359,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1030

Don't miss out on this beautifully updated home, nestled in a wonderful neighborhood of upkeep homes. Vaulted ceilings and large windows with open concept make this home spacious and bright! It's been immaculately cared for with a large fenced yard...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

The month of August is typically one of the strongest home sales months of the year in Lane County. August of 2023 saw over a 24% drop in closed home sales from August of 2022. This is the continuation of the trend we have seen over the past several months of the Summer sales season where we also saw the number of closed home sales decline in Lane County. This trend is not just local, but it also reflects the trend of home sales in most national Real Estate markets. The interesting statistic in our local market is that we are continuing to see the price of homes sold increase. This trend is completely different than most declining markets, where we would typically see home values dropping due to lack of demand. If home sales continue to sag, we will see a decline in home values begin soon. Here are the home sales numbers for Lane County in the month of August 2023.

New Listings

New listings (533) increased 7.2% from the 497 listed in August 2022, and increased 16.6% from the 457 listed in July 2023.

Pending Sales

Pending sales (357) decreased 22.1% from the 458 offers accepted in August 2022, and decreased 8.2% from the 389 offers accepted in July 2023.

Closed Sales

Closed sales (352) decreased 24.1% from the 464 closings in August 2022, and increased 2.0% from the 345 closings in July 2023.

Inventory and Time on Market

Inventory increased to 2.2 months in August. Total market time increased to 33 days.

Year-to-Date Summary

Comparing the first eight months of 2023 to the same period in 2022, new listings (3,403) decreased 17.7%, pending sales (2,623) decreased 22.1%, and closed sales (2,433) decreased 23.9%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2023 to 2022 through August, the average sale price has decreased 0.7% from $475,900 to $472,700. In the same comparison, the median sale price has decreased 0.4% from $436,800 to $435,000.

Note: This data compares the rolling average sale price for the last 12 months (ex: 2/1/22-1/31/23) with 12 months before (ex: 2/1/21-1/31/22).

Residential Trends

August 2023 vs. July 2023

New Listings +16.6% Pending Sales -8.2% Closed Sales +2.0% Average Sale Price +2.8% Median Sale Price +1.1%Inventory +0.3 Total Market Time +4

August 2023 vs. August 2022

New Listings +7.2% Pending Sales -22.1% Closed Sales -24.1% Average Sale Price +6.7% Median Sale Price 0.0%Inventory +1.0 Total Market Time +6

Sale Price Percent Change vs Previous 12 Months

Average Sale Price % Change: +1.1% ($472,800 v. $467,600)

Median Sale Price % Change: +2.4% ($435,000 v. $425,000)

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

2434 E Irwin Way, Eugene, OR 

Price: $365,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1056

This single level ranch style home is located on a quiet street near Irwin Park and the Golden Garden Pond. RV parking and an attached 2-car garage with built-in storage. Vinyl windows, newer carpet & vinyl, large fenced yard with a patio...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

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Haas Real Estate Team
Keller Williams Realty Eugene and Springfield
2645 Suzanne Way Suite 2A
Eugene OR 97408
Direct: (541) 349-2620
Fax: 541-687-6411

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