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Home Sales Improved Slightly In June

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

There is actually some positive news in the world of Real Estate as home sales both locally and nationally improved slightly in June.  Was this increase in sales just a seasonal event or will it become a trend?  Only time will tell as to where the housing market is headed.  Much of the future with housing will depend on the overall economy of our country and whether the lid can be put on inflation or not.  Stay tuned, because we will most likely see some answers here soon.  The following is a recent article from "Realtor.com".

The numbers: Home sales inched up for the first time in four months, even as the U.S. housing market continues to deal with a dearth of listings.

Pending home sales rose by 0.3% in June from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.

The figure exceeded expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to fall 0.5% in June.

Transactions were still down 15.6% from last year.

Pending home sales reflect transactions where a contract has been signed for the sale of an existing home but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.

Big picture: Home sales rose as the housing market contends with excess buyer demand and a shortfall in the supply of homes for sale.

Real-estate agents are looking to home builders to fill the gap as rate-locked homeowners hold out on selling. New-home sales surged in May, and while they lost some momentum in June, the broader trend is still upward.

The prices of new homes, which are generally seen as more expensive, are also coming down. The gulf between the median price of a new home and of an existing home narrowed in June, based on data from the NAR and the federal government.

What the real-estate experts said: “The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said. “The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply.”

The NAR also said it expects rates for 30-year mortgages to average 6.4% this year and to fall to 6% in 2024.

The NAR also expects existing-home sales to fall 12.9% in 2023 from the previous year, to 4.38 million, before recovering in 2024 to a rate of 5.06 million.

The group also expects home prices to hold steady this year, falling only slightly by 0.4% to $384,900, before rising 2.6% next year to $395,000.

The West—the country’s most expensive region—will see reduced prices, while the more affordable Midwest region is likely to see a small positive increase,” Yun added.

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Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

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Price: $275,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1118

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Good Monday Morning!

The rise in mortgage interest rates gets all of the attention for slowing our current local Real Estate market. The truth is that there is another culprit out there that is having an even larger effect on our housing market. This culprit is the long term low inventory of homes for sale. Our local inventory continues to bounce between 1 month and 1.7 months of active inventory. This is the number of months that it would take to exhaust our inventory if no new homes hit the market. A healthy market maintains around 6 months of inventory. Our largest problem right now is not a lack of ready and willing home buyers, but a lack of homes for the ready and willing buyers to purchase. The root cause of this problem is the fact that most homeowners are sitting on mortgages that range from 2.25% to 3.5% and don't want to give up on those rates and jump into a current housing market where interest rates are double or more. If mortgage interest rates tick up even further it could lead to an even lower inventory of homes for buyers needing housing. The following is a recent article from "Realtor.com" that talks about this situation.

Homes listed for sale remained on the market for 18 days on average, unchanged from the previous month. Last June, homes were only on the market for 14 days.

Sales of existing homes across the country were mixed—the Northeast saw home sales climb in June by 2%, but the rest of the country saw flat or even drops in the number of homes being sold.

All-cash buyers made up 26% of sales. The share of individual investors or second-home buyers was 18%. About 27% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers.

Big picture: The housing market has recovered, but with inventory at record lows, the big question is whether it is sustainable.

Home sellers continued to hold out on selling their homes amid mortgage rates that hovered near 7%.

Builders were responding to the lack of inventory by ramping up home-building, but new housing units may not be enough to address the shortage of homes for sale.

Home prices were also at near-record highs, as the NAR noted, which coupled with high rates, makes homeownership unaffordable for many Americans.

What the realtors said: “It is a tough market to be a buyer in the current environment,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said.

Yun added that there were “simply not enough homes for sale,” and that even if inventory doubles, the market could “easily absorb” it.

Buyers are still contending with multiple offers, Yun said, and one-third of homes are getting sold above their list price.

What are they saying? “Existing home sales fell more than expected and are likely to remain subdued until mortgage rates ease or inventories improve,” Erik Johnson, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

“Perhaps stabilizing prices will be enough to convince more owners to put their homes on the market, but it’s likely that the fate of both existing home inventories and mortgage rates will remain linked for the foreseeable future,” he added.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

479 33rd Street, Springfield, OR 

Price: $385,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 1160

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AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

Mortgage interest rates ticked up slightly over the last week! Most likely this was due to anticipation over another potential rate hikes by the Fed. The good news here is that mortgage rates may be peaking and hopefully will soon begin to decline. Lower inflation numbers as of late may help this and also prevent the Fed from a long line of future rate increases. The housing market, both local and national still remains a strong sellers market with low inventories. There really is not any relief in site over the short term for the housing shortage. Here is an article from"Housing Wire" that talks about the present national housing market.

Mortgage rates continued rising for the third consecutive week, increasing to 6.96%, the highest level since November 2022. 

The uptick in mortgage rates came amid positive inflation news – the consumer price index rate showed cooling prices in June, rising just 3.0% from a year ago, the smallest annual increase since March 2021. However, it is unlikely to be enough to prevent an additional rate hike at the next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting on July 25-26. And rates could remain above 6.5% for a while longer, economists said. 

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which focuses on conventional and conforming loans with a 20% down payment, shows the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.96% as of July 13, up from last week’s 6.81%. By contrast, the 30-year was at 5.51% a year ago at this time. 

“Mortgage rates increased to their highest level since November 2022, the last time rates broke seven percent,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Incoming data suggest that inflation is softening, falling to its lowest annual rate in more than two years. However, increases in housing costs, which account for a large share of inflation, remain stubbornly high, mainly due to low inventory relative to demand.”

Other mortgage indexes show rates ticking down. 

HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed Optimal Blue’s 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 6.85% on Wednesday, compared to 6.92% the previous week. The 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans was 6.96% at Mortgage News Daily on Thursday morning, down 12 basis points from the previous week.

Though a strong job market and cooling inflation means many households will be in a good position to buy a house, high mortgage rates and still-high housing prices continue to present stiff challenges, said Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu. As a result, home purchases are slowing and more pressure is added on home and rental prices. 

Overall, the economy is still very durable, said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist of Bright MLS. It is highly possible that mortgage rates will remain above 6.5% over the coming weeks.

For buyers out there, being able to find a home to buy and crafting a successful offer that will beat other buyers remains the main challenge, not high mortgage rates, she said. Home price growth has moderated but in many markets, prices are still rising because of limited supply.

While further rate hikes are likely, economists, including Sturtevant, do not think that it’s the solution to induce a significant drop in home prices. 

“Without a significant influx of new listings, which will not be possible if existing homeowners feel even more tied to the super low rate they got during the pandemic, the balance between demand and supply will still be tilted toward sellers,” said Sturtevant. 

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

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AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Real Estate Sales Down Slightly In June

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

Real Estate sales in the Eugene and Springfiled area sagged slightly in June. For the most part, mortgage interest rates heald steady, which is extremely helpful in this market. Home sales were off from the same period last year and home prices declined slightly, but not enough to compensate for the higher mortgage interest rates. Buyer demand seems to be remaining strong with the largest obstacle for more home purchases being the extreme lack of home inventory. We remain in a very strong seller's market with multiple offers continuing to be the situation with many sales. If you are considering the sale of a home, the market remains very favorable for you. The following is a report on home sales in the Eugene and Springfiled area for June 2023.

New Listings

New listings (553) decreased 12.5% from the 632 listed in June 2022, and increased 26.0% from the 439 listed in May 2023.

Pending Sales

Pending sales (377) decreased 14.3% from the 440 offers accepted in June 2022, and increased 1.3% from the 372 offers accepted in May 2023.

Closed Sales

Closed sales (365) decreased 21.5% from the 465 closings in June 2022, and increased 25.4% from the 291 closings in May 2023.

Inventory and Time on Market

Inventory decreased to 1.6 months in June. Total market time increased to 38 days.

Year-to-Date Summary

Comparing the first six months of 2023 to the same period in 2022, new listings (2,389) decreased 21.9%, pending sales (1,925) decreased 23.1%, and closed sales (1,698) decreased 26.3%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2023 to 2022 through June, the average sale price has decreased 2.5% from $475,900 to $464,100. In the same comparison, the median sale price has decreased 1.1% from $435,000 to $430,000.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

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AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

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Haas Real Estate Team
Keller Williams Realty Eugene and Springfield
2645 Suzanne Way Suite 2A
Eugene OR 97408
Direct: (541) 349-2620
Fax: 541-687-6411

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