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Nationally, Home Prices Decline!

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

Nationally, home prices declined 3.1% in May of this year. This was the first real decline since 2011. Locally, home prices also fell 2.7%, which is lower than nationally, but also the first real decline in years. Typically, in a slower housing market we would have seen housing prices decline much sooner than they have during the current down turn. Higher interest rates would usually drive home prices down, but the lack of home inventory both nationally and locally has kept home prices high and added to the pain that would be home buyers are suffering in todays market. If mortgage interest rates would stabilize or even better yet decline, it would take the pressure off of home prices. Future interest rates hikes by the Fed could keep our national housing market in a decline though. Only time will tell as to what direction the housing market goes. One thing for sure is that if inflation numbers remain high, the Fed will react with more interest rate hikes. The following is an article from "Realtor.com" that addresses the recent decrease in home prices.

The numbers: Sales of previously-owned homes in the U.S. rose slightly in May amid a shortage of homes for sale and high mortgage rates but the median price for an existing home fell 3.1%, the largest drop since December 2011.

Sales of existing homes in the U.S. increased 0.2% to an annual rate of 4.3 million in May, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

That’s the number of homes that would be sold over an entire year if sales took place at the same rate in every month as it did in May. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

The rise in sales exceeded what economists on Wall Street were expecting. They forecast existing-home sales to total 4.25 million in May.

Compared with May 2022, home sales were down 20.4%.

Key details: The median price for an existing home fell 3.1% from last May to $396,100 this year. The drop is the largest since December 2011, when home prices dropped 3.9%.

Home prices have dropped for the fourth month in a row on an annual basis. Home-price growth peaked in May 2021, when it grew 25.2% annually.

The number of homes on the market rose 3.8% in May to 1.08 million units. That’s the lowest number of homes—particularly single-family homes—that have been on the market during the month of May, since the NAR began tracking data in 1983.

Homes listed for sale remained on the market for 18 days on average, down from 22 days in April. Last May, homes were on the market for just 16 days.

Sales of existing homes across the country were mixed–the South and West saw home sales rise, while the Midwest and Northeast saw sales dip in May.

All-cash buyers made up 25% of sales. The share of individual investors or second-home buyers was 15%. About 28% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers.

Big picture: The housing market is broadly recovering, but it’s a slow one.

Buyers are accepting the new reality of mortgage rates above 6%, but the market is still hampered by a serious shortage of homes for sale.

separate report from Realtor.com on Thursday noted that the total number of homes for sale is likely to be at its lowest point since 2012.

While builders are filling the gap with new buildings and responding to demand from home buyers, it’s not enough to meet demand. Plus, new homes are much more expensive than resales. The median price of a new home sold in April was $420,800, nearly $25,000 higher than a previously-owned home.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

5427 Royal Ave, Eugene, OR 

Price: $1,250,000    Beds: 4    Baths: 3.0    SqFt: 3218

One of a kind property. This close-in home and property has an 80' X 120' riding arena with 8 stalls, 24' X 40' small barn and tac room with 3 stalls, 40' X 100' barn with 10 stalls and 600 sq.ft. apartment. Arena and apartment building are Butler b...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

Even though the climate for purchasing a home has become more difficult for most people, recent statistics show that the number of homes purchased by people under the median income level has increased. Here is a recent article that talks about how this market is still growing.

Below-median family income households are overcoming constraints related to increased borrowing costs and home prices and are finding ways to become homeowners, according to Freddie Mac’s latest economic, housing and mortgage outlook.  

The below-median family income homeownership rate increased to 53% from 48% since 2016, Freddie Mac said, citing data from the Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy survey.  In turn, the below-median family income homeownership rate drove the overall increase in the total homeownership rate during that time. 

The homeownership rate for owner-occupied households with a family income higher than the median family income grew at a much slower pace than the below-median family income homeownership rate.

Since the second quarter of 2016, the below-median family income homeownership rate has increased 5.4 percentage points, while the above-median family income homeownership rate has only increased 0.8 percentage points, according to the Census Bureau’s data. 

The homeownership rate gap between above-median and below-median family income households has also shrunk over the last couple of years, and has generally been trending down over the past decade. This is due to the growth in the below-median family income homeownership rate continuing to outpace the above median family income homeownership rate growth, according to Freddie Mac. 

“Below-median family income households are overcoming constraints and finding ways to become homeowners even within a less affordable environment – an encouraging sign as we continue to celebrate National Homeownership Month,” the agency said. 

In terms of home prices, the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) expects them to fall by 2.9% over 12 months through the first quarter of next year, and is expecting an additional decline of 1.3% over the subsequent 12 months.

Mortgage origination volume will likely increase in the second quarter of this year due to seasonality in the housing market, but origination volume for 2023 will almost certainly be below 2022 levels, the GSE said. 

Purchase originations are projected to stay flat before strengthening later this year as home sales stabilize, according to Freddie Mac. It will take until 2024 for purchase originations to resume modest growth, the GSE noted. 

Freddie Mac’s projections are in line with the recent Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) forecasts.

According to the MBA, the median price of existing homes is expected to decline 4.2%, dropping to $367,800 in 2023 from $384,000 in 2022. In 2024, the MBA expects the median price of existing homes to fall an additional 2.1% to $375,400.

Purchase originations are projected by the MBA to increase to 3.9 million loans in volume in 2024 from 3.2 million in 2023. 

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

26065 Lake Trail Dr, Veneta, OR 

Price: $799,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.5    SqFt: 2289

Fall in love with this beautifully updated country home at Fern Ridge Peninsula. Large windows and high ceilings bring in lots of natural light to this spacious and thoughtfully designed floorpan. The large covered stamped concrete patio over looks...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

No Significant Changes This Month

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

There were no significant changes in the Eugene and Springfield Real Estate market in May of this year. All categories were down from May of 2022, including sales, listings and home prices. These same categories with the exception of home prices were up from April of 2023 though, this includes a slight increase in the number of homes on the market. Any relief at all from higher mortgage interest rates would most likely put our local market back on a significant rebound. At this time this scenario looks unlikely though as the Fed is most likely going to announce another rate increase this week. Many economists feel that another rate increase by the Fed at this time is a huge mistake and could put the national housing market further into a tail spin. Let's hope for the best! Here are the home sales numbers for Lane County for the month of May 2023.

New Listings

New listings (439) decreased 27.4% from the 605 listed in May 2022, and increased 14.6% from the 383 listed in April 2023.

Pending Sales

Pending sales (372) decreased 23.1% from the 484 offers accepted in May 2022, and increased 9.7% from the 339 offers accepted in April 2023.

Closed Sales

Closed sales (291) decreased 31.5% from the 425 closings in May 2022, and increased 2.5% from the 284 closings in April 2023.

Inventory and Time on Market

Inventory increased to 1.7 months in May. Total market time decreased to 34 days.

Year-to-Date Summary

Comparing the first five months of 2023 to the same period in 2022, new listings (1,833) decreased 24.0%, pending sales (1,564) decreased 24.9%, and closed sales (1,320) decreased 27.7%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2023 to 2022 through May, the average sale price has decreased 2.7% from $473,000 to $460,300. In the same comparison, the median sale price has decreased 0.7% from $433,000 to $430,000.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

35243 Mckennzie View Dr, Springfield, OR 

Price: $824,900    Beds: 4    Baths: 2.5    SqFt: 1917

Absolutely gorgeous home and setting 10 minutes from town. Entire home has been updated with no spared expense and thought for the highest quality and extra attention to detail. Enjoy the park-like setting with trees, wildlife and amazing views of t...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Inventory Remains Low

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

The inventory of homes for sale in the Eugene and Springfield area continues to be extremely low and well below 2 months of inventory. This means that if no new homes were to go on the market it would take less than two months to void the existing inventory of homes for sale. A healthy Real Estate market would have around 6 months of inventory of homes for sale. This lack of inventory is holding home prices high, not only in our local market area, but in most markets around the country. High home prices and higher mortgage interest rates are continuing to make home ownership difficult for many. It is a tough market for home buyers, but on the other side of the coin, the market remains attractive for anyone wanting to sell a home. Here is an article from "Realtor.com" that talks about the national home inventory issues.

The numbers: Home prices rose in March as sellers held out on listing their homes, constraining supply.

Despite elevated mortgage rates, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index rose 0.5% in March, as compared with the previous month.

Home prices were strongest in the Southeast, while prices in the West continued to drag. Though buyer demand has outpaced supply in March, surging mortgage rates may dampen home sales. The rate for the 30-year mortgage in May is over 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Year-over-year appreciation was down 1.1%, a dip after home prices rose 0.4% in February. The 20-city index peaked in June 2022.

A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose 0.4% in March compared with February and was up 0.7% over the past year.

All numbers were seasonally adjusted.

Key details: Cities in the Southeast led home price growth. Miami and Tampa in Florida and Charlotte, N.C., were the three cities with the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March.

Cities on the West Coast, from Seattle to San Francisco, continued to see weak home-price growth. Home prices in Seattle were down 12.4% from last March.

separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency also showed home prices rising in March, up 0.6% from February.

And over the last year, the FHFA index was up 3.6%.

Big picture: The housing market is being squeezed by a lack of supply.

There aren’t enough homes listed for sale on the market, as home sellers see no incentive in giving up their ultralow mortgage rates for a new home loan with a 7% rate.

But rising rates could soon dampen demand as well, as buyers may find rising costs prohibitive to purchasing a home.

The housing sector is trying to boost both demand and supply: While home builders add to supply with new construction, which has boosted sales of new homes, mortgage lenders are also offering incentives, such as buyers only having to make a 1% down payment. The National Association of Realtors is proposing changes to existing tax policy to boost supply.

What S&P said: “Two months of increasing prices do not make a definitive recovery, but March’s results suggest that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said.

“That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months,” he added.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

26065 Lake Trail Dr, Veneta, OR 

Price: $799,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.5    SqFt: 2289

Fall in love with this beautifully updated country home at Fern Ridge Peninsula. Large windows and high ceilings bring in lots of natural light to this spacious and thoughtfully designed floorpan. The large covered stamped concrete patio over looks...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

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Haas Real Estate Team
Keller Williams Realty Eugene and Springfield
2645 Suzanne Way Suite 2A
Eugene OR 97408
Direct: (541) 349-2620
Fax: 541-687-6411

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