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Home Sales Down, Good Opportunity For Home Sellers

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

After a small improvement with home sales nationally, March saw that trend end as once again homes sales slumped. The trend for home sales in the Eugene and Springfield area also has declined further recently. The big question at this point is whether the housing market will continue to slide downwards. The culprits at this point are multiple. The inventory of homes for sale both locally and nationally remains extremely low. Would be home buyers are continuing to find it very difficult to find homes. Mortgage interest rates have declined some recently, but continue to be much higher than during the hot market of a year ago. Typically, in a situation where mortgage interest rates rise, home values decline to compensate. That has not really happened recently and the combination of higher interest rates with high home prices has made home affordability difficult for many would be home buyers. The other culprit is a sagging economy where inflation continues to create havic. A good indication of what is happening in our economy is that auto loan foreclosures are at an all time high, home foreclosures are on a sharp rise and overall consumer spending is lagging. With all of this, the local market remains strong for home sellers. This may not last for long, but the low inventory of homes for sale make the market favorable for those who decide to sell a home right now. The following is an article from "Realtor.com" that describes recent national Real Estate trends.

The numbers: Existing-home sales in the U.S. fell 2.4% in March, as buyers contended with higher mortgage rates and a lack of new listings.

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell to an annual rate of 4.44 million in March, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

That’s the number of homes that would be sold over an entire year if sales took place at the same rate in every month as they did in March. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

The drop in sales reverses a sudden jump in February, when home sales rose to a revised pace of 4.55 million.

The drop in sales was larger than expected. Economists had expected existing-home sales to total 4.48 million in March.

Compared with March 2022, home sales were down 22%.

Key details: The median price for an existing home fell by 0.9% from last March, dropping to $375,700 this year.

The drop is the largest since January 2012, when home prices fell 2% year over year. It’s also the second month in a row that home prices fell.

Home prices peaked at 25.2% in May 2021.

The number of homes on the market rose by 1% in March from the previous month, to 980,000 units.

Expressed in terms of the months-supply metric, there was a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale in March, the same as the previous month. Before the pandemic, a four- or five-month supply was the norm.

Homes remained on the market for 29 days on average in March, down from 34 days in February.

Sales of existing homes fell in most regions, falling the most in the Midwest. The Northeast was the only region that saw sales remain flat.

All-cash transactions made up 27% of all sales, and about 28% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers. The share of individual investors or second-home buyers was 17%.

Big picture: Buyers are watching mortgage rates, and with a low number of homes on the market, they’re being cautious and pulling back when the market isn’t going their way.

Rates rose in the latest week, adding hundreds of dollars in extra costs for potential borrowers, and mortgage demand is down. The drop likely signals further weakness in home sales.

Would-be home buyers are also contending with a low supply of new listings. Many are turning to new homes, whose inventory continues to grow. Builders are gaining market share as a result.

What the realtors said: “It’s a unique housing market,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said.

Despite drops in home prices and sales, multiple offers are back, Yun said, especially for entry-level homes. New listings are down 17% from the previous year.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1553 Fetters Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $279,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 960

This move-in ready townhouse has been freshly updated w/ new interior paint & new laminate flooring, baseboard, fixtures counter tops and more. Kitchen w/ ample counter space & cabinetry. Two large bedrooms and a full bathroom upstairs. Laundry & ha...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

All Cash Buyers In Our Market

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

The monthly Realtors Confidence Index is an essential measure of what real estate professionals are seeing in their local markets and how the market is evolving on a monthly basis. The National Association of Realtors Research Group has produced the index since 2008, a time of turbulence in the real estate market.

One such measure is who is entering the market. Since October of 2022, the share of buyers who are purchasing their home without a mortgage has been more than one quarter of the market. The share is collected monthly in the Realtors Confidence Index and includes buyers who purchased primary homes, vacation homes and investors. 

These all-cash homebuyers are happily avoiding the higher mortgage interest rates, which touched 7% in the fall of 2022 before trending down to the current rate of 6.28%. While spring of 2022 saw a similar share of all-cash homebuyers, one needs to look back to 2014 before seeing similar shares. 

Then, the mortgage interest rates were in the low-4% range. In the months before the COVID-19 pandemic, the share of all-cash buyers hovered in the teens. While mortgage rates may be one component, they do not tell the full story. So what happened and who is paying all cash for homes? 

One factor at play is the multiple-bid scenarios that took place throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Homebuyers placed competitive offers on homes while inventory grew increasingly difficult to find. In March of 2022, sellers received an average of 5.5 offers

Today, the average is 2.7 offers. As buyers wanted to find the perfect property, before interest rates rose, they were willing to offer all cash to sellers so their offer was not contingent on financing. 

Additionally, buyers migrated to more affordable locations in low-density areas, allowing them to purchase a home with all cash, if they had housing equity from their past property. Thus, the typical homeowner, who owned their home for a decade, had more than $200,000 in housing equity to make a trade. 

The share of non-primary residence buyers is now at 18% from a high of 22% in January 2022. At that time, housing inventory dropped to historic lows making the environment ripe for investors. Investors joined the market to hold properties as short-term or long-term rentals, or to flip the home. 

As these all-cash buyers and non-primary residence buyers are finding success in today’s housing market, what is notably lacking are first-time homebuyers. Unfortunately, the share of first-time buyers remained suppressed at just 27% last month. While it is not the high seen during the First-time Home Buyer Tax Credit in 2010, it is also not the historical norm of 40% seen in the annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers report

Notably, during the time frame of the First-time Home Buyer Tax Credit, there was significantly more inventory than seen today. Unfortunately, the hope of seeing more first-time buyers in the market this year due to the lower competition has yet to materialize as higher mortgage interest rates have suppressed the share who can afford to purchase a home. 

First-time buyers today need more housing inventory to improve affordability. The low mortgage interest rates of 3% are not going to be seen any time in the near future. For buyers to afford to enter the market comfortability and sustainably, new construction, office conversion, and reimagining existing spaces such as vacant schools could hold the key.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

260 54th Street, Springfield, OR 

Price: $405,000    Beds: 4    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 2048

Great opportunity for a multi-family investment property. Both units are townhouse style with attached garages & separated backyards. Vinyl windows, newer flooring & spacious bedrooms. Convenient location near shopping & the bus line. Strict tenant...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

Home sales in March of 2023 were off significantly from March of 2022. The primary reason for the decline in home sales was the declining inventory of homes for sale in our local market. Conditions for homes selling actually improved as mortgage interest rates declined in late March. The numbers of people out there looking to purchase a home has increased a bunch as the price of homes has become increasingly favorable and the cost of money has decreased. If home inventories increase and mortgage rates remain lower, April could see a huge rebound in home sales locally. If you are thinking about selling your home this year, do not miss out on this opportunity. This window could close quickly if mortgage rates go on the rise again. Here are the home sales statistics for Lane County in March of 2023.

New Listings

New listings (400) decreased 24.5% from the 530 listed in March 2022, and increased 40.4% from the 285 listed in February 2023.

Pending Sales

Pending sales (342) decreased 27.4% from the 471 offers accepted in March 2022, and increased 24.4% from the 275 offers accepted in February 2023.

Closed Sales

Closed sales (291) decreased 28.3% from the 406 closings in March 2022, and increased 26.5% from the 230 closings in February 2023.

Inventory and Time on Market

Inventory decreased to 1.4 months in March. Total market time decreased to 44 days.

Year-to-Date Summary

Comparing the first three months of 2023 to the same period in 2022, new listings (997) decreased 23.4%, pending sales (900) decreased 23.7%, and closed sales (713) decreased 26.0%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2023 to 2022 through March, the average sale price has decreased 3.1% from $459,800 to $445,500. In the same comparison, the median sale price has decreased 1.9% from $422,900 to $415,000.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

4261 Hyacinth St, Eugene, OR 

Price: $549,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 1800

Beautifully updated, spacious home in this highly desirable neighborhood! Abundant natural light with vaults and skylights. The large windows take in the expansive back views of undeveloped fields and wetlands. Two living areas, with luxury vinyl flo...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Mortgage Rates Down Again

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

Mortgage interest rates continued to fall as of late last week. This decrease in mortgage rates is enough to help many would be home buyers get back into the market and get serious about a home purchase. This is welcome news for many buyers who have been shoved out of the housing market due to high and rising mortgage interest rates. The largest obstacle in the way of most home buyers who are back looking at homes is the lack of inventory. In the Eugene and Springfield market area, the inventory of homes on the market for sale remains under two months. A healthy market has home inventories of around 6 months. The lack of homes for buyers to choose from is a huge problem and one that just does not seem to get any better. Most likely mortgage rates will have to decline much further to interest home owners who have 2.5% to 3% mortgage interest rates into selling and buying another home. Only this will open up inventory levels. Here is an article from "Realtor.com" that talks about the current mortgage interest rate decline.

The numbers: Mortgage rates slide down to the lowest level in six weeks as consumers feel uncertain about the state of the U.S. economy.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% as of March 30, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday.

That’s down 10 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point.

The 30-year was last at this level in mid-February.

Last week, the 30-year was at 6.42%. Last year, the 30-year was averaging at 4.67%.

The average rate on the 15-year mortgage fell to 5.56%, from 5.68% the previous week. The 15-year was at 3.83% a year ago.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates is based on thousands of applications received from lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage.

Separate data by Mortgage News Daily said that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was averaging at 6.61% as of Thursday morning.

What Freddie Mac said: “Over the last several weeks, declining rates have brought borrowers back to the market but, as the spring homebuying season gets underway, low inventory remains a key challenge for prospective buyers,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a statement.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1636 Fetters Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $265,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1118

This move-in ready townhouse has been freshly updated w/ new interior paint & new carpet. Spacious kitchen w/ ample counter space & cabinetry. Two large bedrooms and a full bathroom upstairs. Laundry & half bathroom are on the main level. Enclosed p...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

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Haas Real Estate Team
Keller Williams Realty Eugene and Springfield
2645 Suzanne Way Suite 2A
Eugene OR 97408
Direct: (541) 349-2620
Fax: 541-687-6411

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