Real Estate Information Archive

Good Monday Morning!

As mortgage rates tick up, demand for housing has not slacked off.  The inventory of homes for sale in the Eugene and Springfield area is at a historic low and currently no end to this situation is in sight.  Housing demand far outweighs supply, even as mortgage rates have increased.  The question now is, will the trend of low housing inventory continue with the higher mortgage rates as the potential for decreased buyer demand rises?  This article from "Realtor.com" talks about this issue nationally.

Mortgage rates have jumped to the highest point in over half a year as investors grow more optimistic about the state of the economy. And that’s bad news for some home buyers.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.17% for the week ending March 25, up eight basis points from the previous week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. It’s the highest level the 30-year mortgage has reached since June of last year.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, meanwhile, rose five basis points to an average of 2.45%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 2.84%, up 22 five points from the previous week.

So far in 2021, mortgage rates have risen over half a percentage point. Mortgage rates rose above the 3% for the first time since last summer earlier this month. Rising mortgage rates are a reflection of the upbeat sentiment among investors, which has pushed long-term bond yields higher, including the 10-year Treasury.

“Rising expectations around the boost to economic activity from a fresh round of fiscal stimulus, equal to more than one month’s worth of economic output, and reemerging consumers drove rates higher,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

(Realtor.com is operated by News Corp subsidiary Move Inc., and MarketWatch is a unit of Dow Jones, which is also a subsidiary of News Corp.)

Higher mortgage rates have yet to dampen demand among home buyers. The volume of mortgage applications for loans used to purchase homes has increased for four consecutive weeks, according to data released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Desperate for more space

As people continue to work from home, many families are in desperate need of more space, causing them to pursue buying larger homes. At the same time, millennials have reached their peak home-buying years. As more young couples move in together and get married, that’s increase homeownership demand.

But the number of homes for sale has not kept up with demand. Many sellers have opted against listing their homes for sale amid the coronavirus pandemic. Plus, years of under-building of new homes following the Great Recession has led to a supply-demand imbalance in the housing market.

Home builders are working feverishly to construct new homes, but rising material costs could become an issue. Overall, it’s a recipe for higher prices. Median listing prices were up 15.6% from a year ago as of Thursday, according to a new report from Realtor.com.

“As both home-price growth and mortgage rates continue this upward trend, we may see affordability challenges become more severe if new and existing supply does not significantly pick up,” Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in the organization’s application report.

The spring home-buying season is here, which means more buyers streaming into the market and more competition for homes. But buyers might see some relief in coming weeks, at least when it comes to mortgage rates.

“Concerns about a possible new wave of COVID in Europe and what that might mean for cases in the U.S. could foreshadow a pause in rate increases — even if brief — in the weeks ahead,” Hale said.

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Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

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Price: $399,000    Beds: 5    Baths: 2.0    Sq Ft: 2262

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Good Monday Morning!

Yes, mortgage interest rates are on the rise.  This could just be a temprary blip or it could be the start of a change in rates that will lead to higher mortgage rates on a long term basis.  If this change is not short term, the increase will begin putting pressure on homes pricing that has been on a steady upwards trajectory for a long period of time.  If you are considering selling your home?  Don't wait! Higher rates may certainly mean less money for your home. Here is an article from  "Realtor.com" that talks about the current mortgage interest rate situation

The Federal Reserve is planning to stay the course in keeping interest rates low — but that isn’t necessarily music to home buyers’ ears.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve signaled that it won’t raise interest rates until 2023 at the earliest, even though some observers have voiced concerns about rising inflation. As of now, seven of the 18 Fed officials expect a rate hike to come in 2023, while four think one could happen next year.

Investors happily greeted the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both notching intraday records Wednesday following the Fed’s announcement. Whether the Fed’s policy is similarly auspicious for home buyers or people looking to refinance their existing mortgages remains to be seen.

Since the start of the year, the benchmark rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen more than 40 basis points, according to data from Freddie Mac.

As of Thursday, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.09%, up four basis points from the week earlier, Freddie Mac reported. It’s the highest level that the benchmark mortgage rate has hit since June of last year.

Meanwhile, the average rates on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 5-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage both increased by two basis points, to 2.4% and 2.79% respectively.

“The Fed funds rate itself has no impact on mortgage rates,” said Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, in explaining the Fed’s policy decision didn’t stem the rise in mortgage rates this week.

The Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates. But mortgage rates are long term rates, and mortgage lenders take their cues from the bond market when setting the rates they charge to borrowers.

In particular, mortgage rates roughly track the direction of the 10-year Treasury. But even that relationship isn’t foolproof. “This relationship can vary,” Kapfidze said. “Ten-year Treasury rates were on an upward trend from August 2020, but mortgage rates were still falling until February.”

Mortgage rates have risen quickly in recent weeks, reaching the highest level since July, as investors grew increasingly concerned about inflation. With Americans now receiving the stimulus checks approved as part of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, some analysts expect people to rush out and spend that money, causing prices to go up for consumer goods and services.

Still, the Fed’s stance and policy decisions could have some influence on mortgage rates, even if the central bank doesn’t control them directly. Since the start of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has ramped up its purchases of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to pump much needed liquidity into the market. Those purchases helped to push rates lower.

“Reaffirming its commitment to ongoing asset purchases while acknowledging that a tapering is on the horizon at some point — likely, pretty far off — should help slow the rise of mortgage rates,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. Hale noted that she expects the overall upward trend in mortgage rates to continue.

But if the Fed reverses its policy regarding mortgage-backed securities, rates could quickly rise as lenders face liquidity constraints. Alternatively, if the Fed were to opt to ramp up its purchases of 10-year Treasury notes to stem long-term rates, then mortgage rates could drop, Kapfidze said.

Either way, mortgage rates remain very low by historical standards even if they’re now above the 3% mark, and industry experts anticipate that demand for mortgages will remain strong.

The Mortgage Bankers Association “continues to see a very strong housing market, with mortgage applications to buy a home increasing, even as refinance demand wanes,” said Mike Fratantoni, the trade organization’s chief economist. “While mortgage rates are likely to move somewhat higher, the purchase market remains on track for a record year.”

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

4577 Spring Meadow Ave, Eugene, OR 

Price: $399,900    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    Sq Ft: 1582

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Good Monday Morning!

 February 2021 home sales numbers in the Eugene and Springfield area show that there is little change in our local housing market.  The inventory of homes climbed slightly from .8 months to .9 months.  This is not enough change to make any kind of real difference.  This number is also well below the 1.6 months of inventory that we had in February of 2020.  In a normal market, healthy home inventory numbers would be between 3 and 6 months.  So, we continue with a shortage of homes on the market and very high demand.  The following is a report from RMLS showing February 2021 homes sales in Lane County.

February Residential Highlights

New listings (352) decreased 6.6% from the 377 listed in February 2020, and increased 2.6% from the 343 listed in January 2021.

Pending sales (356) decreased 2.7% from the 366 offers accepted in February 2020, and increased 2.3% from the 348 offers accepted in January 2021.

Closed sales (270) decreased 4.9% from the 284 closings in February 2020, and decreased 6.3% from the 288 closings in January 2021.

Inventory and Market Time

Inventory increased to 0.9 months in February. Total market time decreased to 33 days.

Year-To-Date Summary

Comparing the first two months of 2021 to the same period in 2020, new listings (703) decreased 12.9%, pending sales (692) decreased 2.3%, and closed sales (568) increased 5.6%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2021 to 2020 through February, the average sale price has increased 15.9% from $333,200 to $386,200. In the same comparison, the median sale price has increased 14.3% from $315,000 to $360,000.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

77442 Yearous Rd, Cottage Grove, OR 

Price: $399,000    Beds: 5    Baths: 2.0    Sq Ft: 2262

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AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

Fannie Mae‘s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), a composite index designed to track the housing market and consumer confidence to sell or buy a home, fell 1.2 points in February.

Fear not, experts say – better days are ahead. 

Overall, the HPSI hit 76.5 last month, down from 77.7 in January. A small drop was expected, according to Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Dave Duncan, but optimism should be reflected in the coming months. 

“The HPSI remained relatively flat in February, but underlying data indicate growing job-related optimism among consumers, especially among lower-income and renter groups,” Duncan said. 

Duncan said the likelihood of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions easing as vaccination efforts ramp up, combined with the forthcoming warmer weather and another round of fiscal stimulus checks, will give consumers good reason to feel more positive about the labor market.

“However, other components of the index remain well below pre-pandemic levels, so we believe there may still be room for improvement in housing and economic attitudes in the coming months, depending in part on the future path of mortgage rates,” Duncan said. 

Borrowers remain relatively pessimistic on the state of home prices, as the HPSI reported 47% of respondents expect home prices will go up in the next 12 months – up from 41% last month. Those who believe it will go down increased for the second straight month, this time from 17% to 18%.

The percentage of HPSI respondents now believe mortgage rates will go up as well, from 45% to 47%. They were correct, as rates climbed above 3% for the first time since July. 

Since reaching a low point in January, mortgage rates have risen by more than 30 basis points as the economy works to recover, and according to Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, the impact on purchase demand has been noticeable.

“While purchase activity remains high, it has cooled off over the last few weeks and is currently on par with early March, prior to the pandemic,” Khater said. “However, the rise in mortgage rates over the next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season.”

The percentage of HPSI respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 52% to 48%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 37% to 43%. Likewise, the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 57% to 55%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell increased from 33% to 35%.

A turnaround might be on the horizon, though. Mortgage applications for a 30-year fixed rate experienced its largest single-week increase in almost a year, reaching 3.23% in the week ending Feb. 26.

Job security did see an uptick in last month’s responders, as the percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 75% to 82%. The percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 24% to 17%.

Expect these numbers to continue trending upward, as most economists agree the housing market will be one of the driving factors in buoying the economy post-COVID. 

But a comprehensive vaccine rollout remains key, Duncan said.

“The best policy for economic recovery is the broad distribution of an effective vaccine, which is underway,” he said. “The sooner this can be successfully accomplished the sooner growth can accelerate, and our thought is that by mid-year vaccine distribution efforts will be well-established, allowing for a strong second half.”

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

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Good Monday Morning!

Last week, mortgage interest rates began ticking up.  The result was an immediate decline in the number of new mortgage applicatons.  This shows just how sensitive our current market is to mortgage rates.  The question at this time is whether we will see a continuation in rates increasing, whether they stay put or decline back to the historic low levels they have been at.  The next several weeks may show us how 2021 trends in regards to mortgage rates and how the housing market is effected.  The following is an article on mortgage current rates from the "Wall Street Journal".

Mortgage rates reached their highest level since November last week, cooling off home purchase and refinance applications ahead of the all-important spring selling season.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 2.81% in the week ended Feb. 18, the highest since the second week of November, according to mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac. A measure of mortgage applications fell 11.4% over the same week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Improving Covid-19 vaccination rates in the U.S. and expectations of a large federal stimulus package in the coming weeks drove benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields, which are closely tied to mortgage rates, to their largest weekly gains in more than a month last week. Demand in safe-haven assets such as government bonds weakens when investors feel optimistic about the economy.

“Higher rates are a signal of expectations of faster growth and a stronger job market ahead,” said Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s chief economist. “This last week, rates have turned faster than many people had anticipated.”

Rising rates sometimes prompt borrowers to put their mortgage plans on hold for a few weeks, Mr. Fratantoni said. Measures of purchase and refinance activity fell 11.6% and 11.3%, respectively, in the week ended Feb. 19, according to MBA data.

If mortgage rates begin to increase at a faster pace, some borrowers could be discouraged from attempting to buy a home during the crucial home-selling months of March through June. In a typical year, more than 40% of annual home sales are made during this period, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Still, rates remain historically low, and more people are applying for purchase mortgages and refinances than at the same time in 2020. Last year was a banner one for the housing market, thanks in large part to mortgage rates, which fell below 3% for the first time last summer.

Mortgage lenders originated a record $3.6 trillion worth of mortgages last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, an increase of more than 50% from 2019. Refinances accounted for about 59% of that volume. With the 30-year rate near 2.81%, between 16.7 million and 18.1 million Americans could lower their monthly mortgage payments through a refinance, according to mortgage-data firm Black Knight Inc.

Lissette Gomez will close this week on a new loan that lowers the mortgage rate on her Cleveland-area condo to 2.75% from 4.125%. Ms. Gomez, a special-education teacher, said she decided to refinance after she watched her boyfriend get a much lower rate on his mortgage.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

77442 Yearous Rd, Cottage Grove, OR 

Price: $399,000    Beds: 5    Baths: 2.0    Sq Ft: 2262

This country rural setting is a must see! So much potential on this wonderful property with a 1940's cottage style home just waiting for a personalized touch and updating. Fruit trees, grapes, garden area, Home has a pool that is a fixer, and a pool...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!