Eugene Oregon Real Estate Blog

Good Monday Morning!

Conditions in the Real Estate world are changing and changing fast.  Mortgage interest rates are up and they most likely will increase even further.  Is this still a good time to buy or sell a home?  My answer is, Yes! Mortgage rates are up, but this is just the beginiing.  Our high inflation rates will eventually lead the Fed to taking action and begin raising rates.  Even though rates are up at this time, historically, they remain very low.  We may not see rates at the level we have them at now for years. For this reason, I am very pro buying now.  Also, during inflationary times, investment in Real Estate is by far the most solid place to have your money invested.  In regards to selling a home now, it is also a great time.  Inventories of homes for sale remain historically low and demand remains high.  Home value increases may taper in the coming months, so right now the opportunity for a top dollar sale is still very possible.  The coming months will see further change and the market you see today will not be the market of Spring and Summer.  My advice is don't wait to buy or sell a home. The following is an article from Realtor.com that talks about the current housing market nationally.

Surging mortgage rates are making the prospect of buying a home even more expensive for Americans—many of whom have already grown weary about the state of the housing market.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.69% for the week ending Feb. 10, up 14 basis points from the previous week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. It’s the highest level for the benchmark mortgage rate since January 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic had officially reached U.S. shores.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, meanwhile, rose 16 basis points to an average of 2.93%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 2.8%, up nine basis points from the previous week.

“The normalization of the economy continues as mortgage rates jumped to the highest level since the emergence of the pandemic,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in the report. “Rate increases are expected to continue due to a strong labor market and high inflation, which likely will have an adverse impact on home buyer demand.”

There’s already evidence that Americans have soured on the prospect of buying a home. A new survey from Fannie Maeshowed that in January only 25% of respondents believe that now is a good time to buy a home, representing a record low since the mortgage giant began tracking the data. Meanwhile, 69% of people said it was a good time to sell a home.

“Younger consumers—more so than other groups—expect home prices to rise even further, and they also reported a greater sense of macroeconomic pessimism,” Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae, said in the report, noting that young Americans’ “sense of optimism around their personal financial situation declined.”

“All of this points back to the current lack of affordable housing stock, as younger generations appear to be feeling it particularly acutely and, absent an uptick in supply, may have their homeownership aspirations delayed,” Duncan added.

Rising interest rates are another source of pessimism for these buyers. According to Fannie Mae, more than half of the survey respondents (58%) said they expect mortgage rates to rise in the next 12 months, in line with economist’ expectations.

‘With millennials and Gen Z forming households at faster rates, new home construction would have to triple the rate of home completions to close the gap in five to six years.’
– George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com

As Americans consider the prospect of higher rates, some are attempting to take action—but finding major obstacles lie in their path. “Real-estate markets are caught in a lopsided dynamic with many buyers eager to find the right home before rates rise even higher, but very few available homes for sale as a result of almost a decade and a half of underbuilding,” said George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com.

According to Ratiu, the housing shortage has surpassed 5.8 million homes as of the end of 2021. “With millennials and Gen Z forming households at faster rates, new home construction would have to triple the rate of home completions to close the gap in five to six years,” he said.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1826 Adelman Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $500,000    Beds: 4    Baths: 2.5    Sq Ft: 2522

This home has a great floor plan with very wide hallways, staircase and high vault ceilings. Large master bedroom on the main level with dining area and large kitchen with counter. 3 bedrooms upstairs with with a bonus room area. This home sits on o...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

With about two weeks of inventory of homes for sale in the Eugene and Springfield area, home buyers are struggling to find homes to purchase.  This situation does not seem to be easing at this time and it is creating an very strong market for home sellers with multiple buyers and offers being the norm.  Could the slight increase in mortgage interest rates begin changing this situation?  The answer to this is most likely it will not at this time.  If mortgage rates begin to tick up even higher, then you will see fewer buyers out there and the inventory of homes could begin to rise.  My suggestion is for home buyers to hang in there.  Even though rates jumped slightly, they are going higher in the near furture and will not be dropping again as many think.  For home sellers, if you are going to sell your home this year, don't wait.  You are at the top of the market and waiting will only cost you money.  Here is an article from a national Real Estate publication that speaks to our current housing market situation.

Homes are selling even faster than they were at this time last year as buyers continue to compete in the housing market. Housing inventories are lower as well, down 28% from a year ago. In December 2021, the National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing homes for sale fell to an all-time low.

With fewer listings of homes last week, buyer interest again outpaced homes available, writes Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist, in a weekly analysis posted at the site.

“With fewer homes for sale now than this time last year, homes are selling faster and successful buyers have to move quickly,” Hale writes.

Seventy-nine percent of homes sold in December 2021 were on the market for less than a month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Properties typically remained on the market for just 19 days in December.

As rents rise at a double-digit pace, renters are looking to homeownership for the safety net of a steady mortgage and hopes of long-term appreciation. Mortgage rates that remain under 4% are also an incentive.

However, the fear of rising rates has driven a “rush on new-home sales as buyers try to sign contracts to lock-in rates and beat further cost increases,” Hale says.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

3311 Ginkgo Way, Eugene, OR 

Price: $399,900    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    Sq Ft: 1417

Meticulously maintained two owner ranch style home in a quiet Santa Clara neighborhood. Newer roof, forced air w/ heat pump & vinyl windows. Corner 1/4 acre lot w/ screened in covered patio, two storage sheds, sprinklers, an irrigation well & RV par...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

The inventory of homes for sale in the Eugene and Springfield area has never been lower.  A brisk market with high demand created by extremely low mortgage interest rates and a national housing shortage have fueled a hot market that currently has about two weeks of housing inventory. Things are changing though!  Mortgage interest rates have bumped up slightly and inflation has hit the housing market hard. The combination of high home prices and higher interest rates could be the catalyst for change. The coming weeks will tell the story.  The following is an article from MSNBC that talks about this current housing market change nationally.

The nation’s housing market has never been this tight, which is frustrating enough for house hunters, but now they have another problem.

Mortgage rates, which have hovered around record lows since the start of the Covid pandemic, are now rising. It’s what one potential buyer called “a perfect storm.” Another described it as “agony.”  

At a Sunday open house in Waldorf, Maryland, last weekend, there were already three offers on the three-bedroom home before it even started. By Tuesday, the agent’s deadline, there were nine.

“We’re stuck between a rock and a hard place,” said Rondie Robinson, who was there with his wife and daughter. Robinson said he recently got a new job and is looking to upgrade to a larger home.

“We thought that because of the winter months that it would slack off a little bit, prices would start to come back down to normal, but that’s not happening,” he said. “It’s anguish, it’s pain, it’s agony.”

Limited supply is taking a toll on sales. Pending home sales, which represent signed contracts on existing homes, fell more than expected from November to December, down 3.8%, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Realtors blame the drop on the extreme shortage of homes for sale, not on lack of demand.

New listings from sellers were down 8% year over year for the week ended Jan. 22, according to Realtor.com. Those listings have been below historical levels for eight of the last 10 weeks. As a result, active inventory, which is the total number of homes for sale, was down 28% from a year ago.

Buyers are coming out early this year, hoping to get a jump on the usually busy spring market. They are also concerned that in an already pricey housing market, rising mortgage rates could force them out.

“Between looming rate hikes, rising home prices and surging rents, today’s home shoppers have plenty of motivation to close while monthly costs might still be affordable,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

The combination of fierce demand and low mortgage rates over the past two years caused home prices to rise at the fastest pace in several decades. While the year-over-year gains are starting to shrink nationally, prices are still at record highs, up close to 19% last November from November 2020, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.

“We don’t want to wait, because likely when it does get warmer, more houses go on the market, and the rates get higher, it’s just gonna be kinda like the worst situation, like the perfect storm where things really go up,” said Mike Williams, who was at the open house in Maryland.

The home was priced at $375,000, right around the national median. But rising rates mean the monthly payment is now about $200 more than it would have been a year ago and $100 more than just three weeks ago. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was below 3% at the start of last year and is now hovering around 3.7%.

“Everybody’s concerned that competition’s going to make it so that especially the first-time homebuyers don’t have a leg up, they’re not going to be able to compete,” said Duke Walker, a loan officer at Movement Mortgage in Washington, D.C.

Walker said his phone has been ringing off the hook with calls from potential buyers looking to lock in their rates now before they move any higher. Mortgage applications to buy a home jumped 8% in the second week of this month from the first, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Over the last two weeks in particular, you’ve seen a significant increase, not just with my own, but industrywide all my contemporaries are also seeing their application count up,” said Walker.

More competition amid limited supply will only make the competition more fierce. Homes are now selling on average 10 days faster than they were a year ago, according to Realtor.com.

City Chic Realty’s Kyo Freeman, who is the agent on the Maryland home, said he expected from the start to see it sell for well above the list price, just as so many did last year.

“It feels like we’re going to see a lot of similar bidding wars,” said Freeman. “Any property that is really, really high interest is going to have a lot of offers, and it’s going to be tough for somebody who has a limited budget to be able to compete for those.”

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

3311 Ginkgo Way, Eugene, OR 

Price: $399,900    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    Sq Ft: 1417

Meticulously maintained two owner ranch style home in a quiet Santa Clara neighborhood. Newer roof, forced air w/ heat pump & vinyl windows. Corner 1/4 acre lot w/ screened in covered patio, two storage sheds, sprinklers, an irrigation well & RV par...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

The inventory of homes for sale in the Eugene and Springfield area is now hovering at right around 2 weeks of active inventory.  This means that if there were no new homes to come on the market, the current inventory of homes for sale would be exhausted within a two week time period. Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale is also extremely low, but in most cases not to the extent that we have here in Lane County.  The result of this low inventory of homes for sale is that the overall number of homes being sold is also quite low.  Mortage interest rates as of Friday had ticked up to around 4%, a marked increase from where we were just 30 days ago.  It is evident that the market change that I have predicted is hitting us.  Higher interest rates could create less demand and begin the cycle of home inventories beginning to build again. The advice that I would give anyone who is going to sell their home this year is to not wait until Spring.  The market is changing and waiting to sell your home could prove costly.  Here is an article from Realtor.com" that talks about the recent national home inventory situation.

The numbers: Existing-home sales decreased 4.6% between November and December, hitting a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate of 6.18 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Compared to a year ago, sales were down more than 7%.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had projected existing-home sales to come in at 6.48 million.

Overall in 2021, though, existing-home sales reached the highest level since 2006, a sign of the strong demand among buyers nationwide in light of the short supply of properties on the market.

“December saw sales retreat, but the pull back was more a sign of supply constraints than an indication of a weakened demand for housing,” said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, in the report.

Key details: The inventory of homes for sale fell to the lowest level on record, based on data from the National Association of Realtors. The total inventory of homes for sale dropped 18% between November and December.

Expressed in terms of the months-supply, there was a 1.8-month supply of home for sale in December. A 6-month supply of homes is generally viewed as indicative of a balanced market.

The median price for an existing home was $358,000, up 15.8% from December 2020. Homes remained on the market for 19 days on average, and 79% of the homes sold in December had been on the market for less than a month.

Regionally, every part of the country witnessed a decline in home sales in December, led by a 6.8% downturn in the West.

The big picture: The recent surge in mortgage rates threatens to knock some of the wind out of the housing market’s sails. As of Thursday, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.56%, according to Freddie Mac. That represents the highest level for mortgage rates since March 2020, when the pandemic became a major concern in the U.S.

With a backdrop of still-rising home prices, some buyers will face greater affordability challenges in the high-rate environment. Still, the other factors that have fueled the rise in home sales over the past two years remain, including the shift to remote work and the resounding emergence of millennial buyers. In the near term, the prospect of rising interest rates could cause some buyers to rush to lock in deals.

Looking ahead: “Low mortgage rates and a pandemic-related desire for ‘more house’ continued to fuel demand, despite surging prices,” Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist with BMO Capital Markets, said in a research note.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

2700 5th Street, Springfield, OR 

Price: $459,900    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    Sq Ft: 1391

Fantastic single level Hayden Bridge ranch style home w/ backyard access to Royal Delle Park. Tastefully remodeled two years ago w/ new hardwood floors & tile, quartz counters, soft close cabinetry, stainless steel appliances & a spacious master bat...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

As I have been warning everyone for weeks, mortgage interest rates took a jump last week.  Continued high inflation numbers and other negative economic news are the primary cause of this rise.  The current rise in rates is modest and won't effect the market strongly at this time, but look for the Fed to begin a series of rate increases in the near future that could begin to have a negative effect on the national housing market.  If you are thinking of selling your home soon, the time is now to put your home on the market if you want to have a chance to sell in this current hot sellers market.  Waiting could be very costly.  Contact me for market information and for a detailed look at your homes current market value.  Here is an article from "Realtor.com" that will give you further details on the current mortgage rate scenario.

Interest rates are surging on the heels of data showing a concerning outlook for inflation—and home buyers are to set to pay the price.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.45% for the week ending Jan. 13, up nearly a quarter of a percent from the previous week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. It’s the highest average rate for the 30-year loan since March 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic first began to send shockwaves through financial markets amid the first wave of lockdowns.

Comparatively, a year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.23%, near record-low levels.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, meanwhile, rose 19 basis points over the past week to an average of 2.3%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 2.57%, up 16 basis points from the previous week.

Mortgage rates skyrocketed in response to the latest data on inflation. The Consumer Price Index released Wednesday showed that inflation was at a nearly 40-year high, with prices for goods and services having risen 7% over the past year.

Such a high rate of inflation is a major concern to the Federal Reserve, which had already indicated it would increase interest rates and scale back its bond-buying activity in an attempt to right-side the economy. But the central bank’s initial plan may now be out the window.

“With inflation more persistent, the Federal Reserve has sped up its timetable for winding down quantitative easing and is likely to begin raising interest rates sooner and more aggressively than previously expected,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist for corporate and investment banking arm of Wells Fargo, in a research note.

Bullard projected that the Fed may now hike interest rates four times, rather than the initially-projected three. And rather than simply stopping its bond-buying behavior, the central bank could actually begin shrinking its balance sheet by not replacing U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities when they mature, he said.

The Fed’s rate hikes would not have a direct impact on mortgage rates, as they tend to follow the direction of the yields on long-term bonds such as the 10-year Treasury. Instead, higher rates will materialize as investors begin to make assumptions about the Fed’s plans for curbing inflation.

Higher rates aren’t likely to cause home buyers to fully pump the brakes on their plans to purchase property, economists suggested. But it will have an impact at the margins for buyers who may struggle to afford the double whammy of higher interest rates and rising home prices.

“The rise in mortgage rates so far this year has not yet affected purchase demand, but given the fast pace of home price growth, it will likely dampen demand in the near future,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in the report.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

857 Archie St, Eugene, OR 

Price: $315,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.0    Sq Ft: 824

This cozy updated 2 bedroom ranch style home is located on a large fully fenced lot in a quiet neighborhood. New roof, beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new interior paint, new bathroom vanity & new cadet heaters. Kitchen has freshly painted c...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

The 2021 Real Estate Market in the Eugene and Springfield area ended with a bang!  Home prices were up 19.1% over the year.  It ended with an average sales price of well over $400,000. Will this trend continue through 2022?  My bet is a big, "NO"!  We may see this same kind of market with inflating home prices and low inventory for the first quarter and possibly into mid year.  After that, look for the effects of raging inflation to have an effect as the Fed has to raise interest rates in an effort to stem inflation.  This could create a cooling of the housing market.  How much it cools and for how long, greatly depends upon the national economy.  For now, if you are thinking about selling your home, don't wait.  You can still take advantage of a hot sellers market!! Here are the home sale numbers for December of 2021.

New listings (240) decreased 8.4% from the 262 listed in December 2020, and decreased 25.2% from the 321 listed in November 2021.

Pending sales (290) decreased 1.7% from the 295 offers accepted in December 2020, and decreased 26.0% from the 392 offers accepted in November 2021.

Closed sales (414) decreased 7.0% from the 445 closings in December 2020, and increased 0.7% from the 411 closings in November 2021.

Inventory and Market Time

Inventory decreased to 0.6 months in December. Total market time held steady at 30 days.

Year-To-Date Summary

Comparing the twelve months of 2021 to the same period in 2020, new listings (5,850) increased 4.5%, pending sales (5,180) increased 4.0%, and closed sales (5,124) increased 5.8%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2021 to 2020 through December, the average sale price has increased 19.1% from $365,500 to $435,300. In the same comparison, the median sale price has increased 18.6% from $336,500 to $399,000.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

857 Archie St, Eugene, OR 

Price: $315,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.0    Sq Ft: 824

This cozy updated 2 bedroom ranch style home is located on a large fully fenced lot in a quiet neighborhood. New roof, beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new interior paint, new bathroom vanity & new cadet heaters. Kitchen has freshly painted c...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

2021 was a year of home price increases across the nation.  Some areas saw massive increases, while others saw only moderate increases.  The areas with the largest home price increases were typically those states that saw large numbers of people moving to them such as Florida and Arizona.  2022 may see home price increases inch down some, but watch the same areas of heavy growth in 2022.  The rate of home price increases could remain fairly strong in those areas.  Here is an article from "Realtor.com", that goes over the home price increase situation.

The numbers: Home-price growth continues to decelerate

For the third consecutive month, home-price appreciation occurred at a slower pace, according to a major price barometer released Tuesday, reinforcing the notion that the housing market is cooling after over a year of frenzied sales.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city price index posted a 18.4% year-over-year gain in October, down from 19.1% the previous month. On a monthly basis, the index increased 0.8% between September and October.

What happened

The separate national index from the Case-Shiller report showed a 19.1% annual gain, down from a 19.7% increase in September. While lower on the monthly basis, this still represented the fourth-largest annual increase in home prices over the 34-year history of the data.

Phoenix once again led the country in terms of home-price growth, with a 32.3% increase, reinforcing research that showed it to be the housing market where housing affordability suffered the most over the past year. It was followed by two Florida cities, Tampa and Miami. Only six of the 20 major cities that the report tracks notched larger price increases in October than in September, though prices did continue to increase in all 20 cities.

“U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a decelerating rate,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in the report. “October’s gains were below September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s.”

The big picture: Prices won’t start falling anytime soon

A separate home-price index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency recorded a 17.4% increase between October 2020 and October 2021 nationally. That report indicated that the Mountain region—Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico—saw the largest price gains.

“House price levels continue to rise, but the rapid pace is curtailing through October,” Will Doerner, supervisory economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics, said in the report. “The large market appreciations seen this spring peaked in July, and have been cooling this fall with annual trends slowing over the last four consecutive months.”

Still, slowing price-growth isn’t the same as falling prices. Home buyers can expect to pay more and more to buy a home throughout 2022. It’s a reflection of the tight inventory of properties for sale: With so few homes to go around, competition for what properties are on the market will ensure that prices will increase given the high demand for housing.

What they are saying

“Unfortunately, the rate of home-price growth will be limiting for many young buyers who have yet to accumulate sufficient equity gains, and an expected increase in mortgage rates next year will present further challenges. Together, these two factors will keep a lid on continued home-price acceleration,” said CoreLogic deputy chief economist Selma Hepp.

“As housing costs eat up a larger share of home purchaser’s paychecks, buyers will get creative. Many will take advantage of ongoing workplace flexibility to move to the suburbs where, despite home price gains, many can still find a lower price per square foot than nearby cities,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

857 Archie St, Eugene, OR 

Price: $315,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.0    Sq Ft: 824

This cozy updated 2 bedroom ranch style home is located on a large fully fenced lot in a quiet neighborhood. New roof, beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new interior paint, new bathroom vanity & new cadet heaters. Kitchen has freshly painted c...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

It appears that we will end 2021 with a strong housing market. This is good news as for the first quarter of 2022. We should have a strong market initially and that is good news with inflation fears remaining high.  If you are considering a home sale soon, I would not procrastonate.

The numbers: U.S. new home sales jumped 12.4% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 744,000 in November from a revised 662,000 in the prior month, the government reported Thursday. The revised October sales was the lowest since the worst period of the pandemic in April 2020.

Despite the jump, the pace of sales was below expectations because of the sharp downward revision. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast new-home sales to occur at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 766,000 in November.

The data are often revised sharply. Sales in October were initially reported at 745,000

Key details: The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $416,900 marking a new record high. The supply of new homes for sale fell by 8.5% between October and November, equating to a 6.5-month supply.

Regionally, sales rose in all regions in November except the Midwest. Sales were strongest in the West.

Big picture: The housing sector remains robust but off the highs seen last year. Sales are 14% below last year’s level.

Although the sector is expected to continue to be strong, the prospect of higher mortgage rates should keep activity from getting red-hot, economists said.

What are they saying: “This is a seriously odd report. We would not be at all surprised to see both the October and November numbers being revised up substantially. In the meantime, the rising trend in mortgage applications probably is a better guide to the underlying state of demand in the housing market,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

857 Archie St, Eugene, OR 

Price: $315,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.0    Sq Ft: 824

This cozy updated 2 bedroom ranch style home is located on a large fully fenced lot in a quiet neighborhood. New roof, beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new interior paint, new bathroom vanity & new cadet heaters. Kitchen has freshly painted c...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

The numbers are in and November home sales in the Eugene and Springfield area remain strong.  Home prices continue to climb as demand for residential property is high.  Mortgage interest rates remain extremely attractive, hovering around the 3% range for 30 year conventional loans.  Here are the November home sale numbers for Lane County.

Residential Highlights

New listings (321) increased 3.2% from the 311 listed in November 2020, and decreased 33.4% from the 482 listed in October 2021.

Pending sales (392) decreased 1.5% from the 398 offers accepted in November 2020, and decreased 15.0% from the 461 offers accepted in October 2021.

Closed sales (411) increased 4.8% from the 392 closings in November 2020, and decreased 9.7% from the 455 closings in October 2021.

Inventory and Market Time

Inventory decreased to 0.8 months in November. Total market time increased to 25 days.

Year-To-Date Summary

Comparing the first eleven months of 2021 to the same period in 2020, new listings (5,591) increased 5.0%, pending sales (4,899) increased 4.2%, and closed sales (4,686) increased 6.8%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2021 to 2020 through November, the average sale price has increased 19.3% from $363,500 to $433,600. In the same comparison, the median sale price has increased 18.2% from $335,000 to $396,000.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

857 Archie St, Eugene, OR 

Price: $315,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.0    Sq Ft: 824

This cozy updated 2 bedroom ranch style home is located on a large fully fenced lot in a quiet neighborhood. New roof, beautifully refinished hardwood floors, new interior paint, new bathroom vanity & new cadet heaters. Kitchen has freshly painted c...View this property >> 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Good Monday Morning!

As we approach the end of another hot year for the market, homebuyers and sellers are eagerly looking ahead to the 2022 housing market. Will the market continue its streak of strong growth, or are we finally about to see a slow down? 

Here’s a high-level forecast for what to expect next year, based on the supply and demand signals we can already see in today’s data. I’ll also highlight which variables we should be watching for unexpected market shifts.

1. Demand will continue to be strong into 2022.

The first signal we look at to forecast the strength of the housing market is days on market – how fast are homes moving? Right now, we’re seeing a median of 49 days on market and climbing, as it normally does this time of year. A typical December would see market time at 85-100 days, so you can see from the chart that demand is staying elevated later in the year, which is a bullish sign for next year.

Due to the strong seasonal patterns, I predict days on market will hit a low of 21 days in April, tying the record-fast market times from earlier this year.

With homebuyer demand off the charts earlier this year, Altos Research began tracking the phenomenon we call “immediate sales.” You’ve probably seen this in your local market, where offers happen more or less immediately after the home gets listed for sale. At this moment, about 25% of properties are going into contract essentially immediately every week (around 20,000 of them within hours or days of listing) — even as supply and transaction volume declines through the end of the year. 

I actually expected immediate sales to be dropping at this point, but it isn’t. Even over the Thanksgiving holiday, total volumes were down, but immediate sales as an indicator of demand were still dominant. The fact that this trend is continuing unabated into the winter indicates continued strong demand into next year. 

That being said, if the housing market turns, immediate sales will be one of the first places we’ll be able to see it. For example, if buyers are cooled by higher interest rates, the first thing that’s going to happen is they’re not going to make those immediate offers. 

Since it will take several months for rates to rise high enough to discourage buyers, we can expect immediate sales and all the related buyer competition characteristics (multiple offers, over-bidding) to remain common well into at least the second quarter of 2022.

Another signal pointing to continued elevated demand is the percent of homes on the market taking price reductions. In a normal market, we tend to see about 30% to 35% of sellers initially over-price their homes and eventually reduce the price to attract buyers. 

Right now price reductions are at 27%, and starting to tick down again after the fall peak in September. You can see that it’s higher than last year, but still lower than normal. Home sellers with properties on the market now know that the demand is there, and they don’t have to cut their prices. This tells us that the transactions for these homes that happen in the first quarter will still be priced very strongly.

2. Low inventory will continue to be a major issue.

Unfortunately for all these eager homebuyers, inventory continues to be at record low levels. We are currently at just over 350,000 single-family homes on the market. You can see from this chart that inventory has been on a downward trajectory for years, and recent strong demand has only accelerated this trend. You can also see that it’s normal for inventory to drop at this time of year, but it’s actually declining faster than I expected even a few weeks ago, which indicates that we’ll start 2022 with record- low levels of available inventory, even less than in 2021.

At this point, it looks like we’re going to end the year at just under 300,000 single-family homes for sale. If we’re lucky, we’ll start getting greater inventory in the housing market in February, then it’ll start climbing and be at a more normal curve next year, but we’re still miles away from a normal level, with no indication that we’ll return to our usual million homes anytime soon.

That being said, keep an eye on rising interest rates. If you look at the 2018 line in the inventory chart, you’ll see that inventory hadn’t yet declined by this time of year in 2018. Why? Because interest rates rose from around 3.9% to 4.9% between April and December, and that cooled the market enough that a little bit of inventory built up during 2018. You can see that 2019 was the only recent year that started with more inventory than the year before.

3. Home prices will remain high into 2022.

With demand showing no signs of cooling and record-low inventory, I expect home prices to remain high into next year. The median home price for single family homes this week is $375,000, which is about 10% higher than last year and where we are likely to end the year.

As we look towards 2022, all the leading indicators show tight inventory and strong demand keeping prices high — a strong seller’s market. If interest rates start rising, and we’re seeing inflation or other economic challenges, this could have a cooling effect on the market. These variables aren’t in the data yet, but they’re looming. We’ll want to keep watching the data closely to spot any major shifts.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

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