Real Estate Information Archive

Good Monday Morning!

After a small improvement with home sales nationally, March saw that trend end as once again homes sales slumped. The trend for home sales in the Eugene and Springfield area also has declined further recently. The big question at this point is whether the housing market will continue to slide downwards. The culprits at this point are multiple. The inventory of homes for sale both locally and nationally remains extremely low. Would be home buyers are continuing to find it very difficult to find homes. Mortgage interest rates have declined some recently, but continue to be much higher than during the hot market of a year ago. Typically, in a situation where mortgage interest rates rise, home values decline to compensate. That has not really happened recently and the combination of higher interest rates with high home prices has made home affordability difficult for many would be home buyers. The other culprit is a sagging economy where inflation continues to create havic. A good indication of what is happening in our economy is that auto loan foreclosures are at an all time high, home foreclosures are on a sharp rise and overall consumer spending is lagging. With all of this, the local market remains strong for home sellers. This may not last for long, but the low inventory of homes for sale make the market favorable for those who decide to sell a home right now. The following is an article from "Realtor.com" that describes recent national Real Estate trends.

The numbers: Existing-home sales in the U.S. fell 2.4% in March, as buyers contended with higher mortgage rates and a lack of new listings.

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell to an annual rate of 4.44 million in March, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

That’s the number of homes that would be sold over an entire year if sales took place at the same rate in every month as they did in March. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

The drop in sales reverses a sudden jump in February, when home sales rose to a revised pace of 4.55 million.

The drop in sales was larger than expected. Economists had expected existing-home sales to total 4.48 million in March.

Compared with March 2022, home sales were down 22%.

Key details: The median price for an existing home fell by 0.9% from last March, dropping to $375,700 this year.

The drop is the largest since January 2012, when home prices fell 2% year over year. It’s also the second month in a row that home prices fell.

Home prices peaked at 25.2% in May 2021.

The number of homes on the market rose by 1% in March from the previous month, to 980,000 units.

Expressed in terms of the months-supply metric, there was a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale in March, the same as the previous month. Before the pandemic, a four- or five-month supply was the norm.

Homes remained on the market for 29 days on average in March, down from 34 days in February.

Sales of existing homes fell in most regions, falling the most in the Midwest. The Northeast was the only region that saw sales remain flat.

All-cash transactions made up 27% of all sales, and about 28% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers. The share of individual investors or second-home buyers was 17%.

Big picture: Buyers are watching mortgage rates, and with a low number of homes on the market, they’re being cautious and pulling back when the market isn’t going their way.

Rates rose in the latest week, adding hundreds of dollars in extra costs for potential borrowers, and mortgage demand is down. The drop likely signals further weakness in home sales.

Would-be home buyers are also contending with a low supply of new listings. Many are turning to new homes, whose inventory continues to grow. Builders are gaining market share as a result.

What the realtors said: “It’s a unique housing market,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said.

Despite drops in home prices and sales, multiple offers are back, Yun said, especially for entry-level homes. New listings are down 17% from the previous year.

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1553 Fetters Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $279,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 960

This move-in ready townhouse has been freshly updated w/ new interior paint & new laminate flooring, baseboard, fixtures counter tops and more. Kitchen w/ ample counter space & cabinetry. Two large bedrooms and a full bathroom upstairs. Laundry & ha...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

The monthly Realtors Confidence Index is an essential measure of what real estate professionals are seeing in their local markets and how the market is evolving on a monthly basis. The National Association of Realtors Research Group has produced the index since 2008, a time of turbulence in the real estate market.

One such measure is who is entering the market. Since October of 2022, the share of buyers who are purchasing their home without a mortgage has been more than one quarter of the market. The share is collected monthly in the Realtors Confidence Index and includes buyers who purchased primary homes, vacation homes and investors. 

These all-cash homebuyers are happily avoiding the higher mortgage interest rates, which touched 7% in the fall of 2022 before trending down to the current rate of 6.28%. While spring of 2022 saw a similar share of all-cash homebuyers, one needs to look back to 2014 before seeing similar shares. 

Then, the mortgage interest rates were in the low-4% range. In the months before the COVID-19 pandemic, the share of all-cash buyers hovered in the teens. While mortgage rates may be one component, they do not tell the full story. So what happened and who is paying all cash for homes? 

One factor at play is the multiple-bid scenarios that took place throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Homebuyers placed competitive offers on homes while inventory grew increasingly difficult to find. In March of 2022, sellers received an average of 5.5 offers. 

Today, the average is 2.7 offers. As buyers wanted to find the perfect property, before interest rates rose, they were willing to offer all cash to sellers so their offer was not contingent on financing. 

Additionally, buyers migrated to more affordable locations in low-density areas, allowing them to purchase a home with all cash, if they had housing equity from their past property. Thus, the typical homeowner, who owned their home for a decade, had more than $200,000 in housing equity to make a trade. 

The share of non-primary residence buyers is now at 18% from a high of 22% in January 2022. At that time, housing inventory dropped to historic lows making the environment ripe for investors. Investors joined the market to hold properties as short-term or long-term rentals, or to flip the home. 

As these all-cash buyers and non-primary residence buyers are finding success in today’s housing market, what is notably lacking are first-time homebuyers. Unfortunately, the share of first-time buyers remained suppressed at just 27% last month. While it is not the high seen during the First-time Home Buyer Tax Credit in 2010, it is also not the historical norm of 40% seen in the annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers report. 

Notably, during the time frame of the First-time Home Buyer Tax Credit, there was significantly more inventory than seen today. Unfortunately, the hope of seeing more first-time buyers in the market this year due to the lower competition has yet to materialize as higher mortgage interest rates have suppressed the share who can afford to purchase a home. 

First-time buyers today need more housing inventory to improve affordability. The low mortgage interest rates of 3% are not going to be seen any time in the near future. For buyers to afford to enter the market comfortability and sustainably, new construction, office conversion, and reimagining existing spaces such as vacant schools could hold the key.

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

260 54th Street, Springfield, OR 

Price: $405,000    Beds: 4    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 2048

Great opportunity for a multi-family investment property. Both units are townhouse style with attached garages & separated backyards. Vinyl windows, newer flooring & spacious bedrooms. Convenient location near shopping & the bus line. Strict tenant...View this property >> 

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Home sales in March of 2023 were off significantly from March of 2022. The primary reason for the decline in home sales was the declining inventory of homes for sale in our local market. Conditions for homes selling actually improved as mortgage interest rates declined in late March. The numbers of people out there looking to purchase a home has increased a bunch as the price of homes has become increasingly favorable and the cost of money has decreased. If home inventories increase and mortgage rates remain lower, April could see a huge rebound in home sales locally. If you are thinking about selling your home this year, do not miss out on this opportunity. This window could close quickly if mortgage rates go on the rise again. Here are the home sales statistics for Lane County in March of 2023.

New Listings

New listings (400) decreased 24.5% from the 530 listed in March 2022, and increased 40.4% from the 285 listed in February 2023.

Pending Sales

Pending sales (342) decreased 27.4% from the 471 offers accepted in March 2022, and increased 24.4% from the 275 offers accepted in February 2023.

Closed Sales

Closed sales (291) decreased 28.3% from the 406 closings in March 2022, and increased 26.5% from the 230 closings in February 2023.

Inventory and Time on Market

Inventory decreased to 1.4 months in March. Total market time decreased to 44 days.

Year-to-Date Summary

Comparing the first three months of 2023 to the same period in 2022, new listings (997) decreased 23.4%, pending sales (900) decreased 23.7%, and closed sales (713) decreased 26.0%.

Average and Median Sale Prices

Comparing 2023 to 2022 through March, the average sale price has decreased 3.1% from $459,800 to $445,500. In the same comparison, the median sale price has decreased 1.9% from $422,900 to $415,000.

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

4261 Hyacinth St, Eugene, OR 

Price: $549,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 1800

Beautifully updated, spacious home in this highly desirable neighborhood! Abundant natural light with vaults and skylights. The large windows take in the expansive back views of undeveloped fields and wetlands. Two living areas, with luxury vinyl flo...View this property >> 

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Mortgage interest rates continued to fall as of late last week. This decrease in mortgage rates is enough to help many would be home buyers get back into the market and get serious about a home purchase. This is welcome news for many buyers who have been shoved out of the housing market due to high and rising mortgage interest rates. The largest obstacle in the way of most home buyers who are back looking at homes is the lack of inventory. In the Eugene and Springfield market area, the inventory of homes on the market for sale remains under two months. A healthy market has home inventories of around 6 months. The lack of homes for buyers to choose from is a huge problem and one that just does not seem to get any better. Most likely mortgage rates will have to decline much further to interest home owners who have 2.5% to 3% mortgage interest rates into selling and buying another home. Only this will open up inventory levels. Here is an article from "Realtor.com" that talks about the current mortgage interest rate decline.

The numbers: Mortgage rates slide down to the lowest level in six weeks as consumers feel uncertain about the state of the U.S. economy.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% as of March 30, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday.

That’s down 10 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point.

The 30-year was last at this level in mid-February.

Last week, the 30-year was at 6.42%. Last year, the 30-year was averaging at 4.67%.

The average rate on the 15-year mortgage fell to 5.56%, from 5.68% the previous week. The 15-year was at 3.83% a year ago.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates is based on thousands of applications received from lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage.

Separate data by Mortgage News Daily said that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was averaging at 6.61% as of Thursday morning.

What Freddie Mac said: “Over the last several weeks, declining rates have brought borrowers back to the market but, as the spring homebuying season gets underway, low inventory remains a key challenge for prospective buyers,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a statement.

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1636 Fetters Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $265,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1118

This move-in ready townhouse has been freshly updated w/ new interior paint & new carpet. Spacious kitchen w/ ample counter space & cabinetry. Two large bedrooms and a full bathroom upstairs. Laundry & half bathroom are on the main level. Enclosed p...View this property >> 

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Good Monday Morning!

Finally, some good news in the national Real Estate world! Home sales ticked up for the first time in over a year. Home sales which picked up in February were far above predicted levels. The surge came on the heels of a brief reduction in mortgage interest rates. At the same time as mortgage interest rates declined, the median sales price of homes also dipped. Both of these factors had a positive effect on the housing industry. Whether this will become a trend or whether this was just a one time situation is yet to be known. The next few months should tell the story. Here is an article from "Realtor.com" that goes over the recent uptick in home sales.

A brief drop in mortgage rates has boosted U.S. home sales, but with economic uncertainty and elevated rates, the recovery may be short-lived.

The numbers: U.S. existing-home sales jumped 14.5% to an annual rate of 4.58 million in February, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

The surge in sales reverses 12 months of losses in existing-home sales. The increase of 14.5% is the largest since July 2020, during the pandemic. Back then, sales rose by 22.4%.

Single-family home sales in particular are at the highest ever since the NAR began tracking the number since 1999.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal were expecting existing-home sales to stay flat at 4.2 million.

Compared with February 2021, home sales were still down by 22.6%.

Key details: The median price for an existing home fell slightly to $363,000 in February.

It’s the first drop in over a decade. Home price declines in the Northeast and West weighed down the overall number.

The number of homes on the market stayed flat at 980,000 units in February.

Expressed in terms of the months-supply metric, there was a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale in February, down from January. Before the pandemic, a four or five-month supply was more the norm.

Homes remained on the market for 34 days on average, up from 33 days in January. Pre-pandemic, the average time for homes to remain on the market was a month.

Sales of existing homes surged in most regions, led by the West, which saw a 19.4% increase. NAR said the Silicon Valley region may likely see more pain, which will show up in the data in the future.

The South reported a 15.9% increase in sales in February, followed by the Midwest, at 13.5%, and the Northeast by 4%.

But sales are still down nationwide when compared to the year before.

All-cash transactions made up 28% of all transactions. About 27% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers, a drop from the previous month.

The share of individual investors or second-home buyers rose from 16% in January to 18% in February.

Big picture: There’s clearly a ton of pent-up demand in the housing market, as seen by February’s jump in home sales. A dip in mortgage rates may have propelled home buyers to jump on purchasing a home, boosting sales.

But meeting supply is the biggest issue at the moment. As First American’s Mark Fleming puts it, “you can’t buy what’s not for sale.” Many homeowners are reluctant to list, which could be pushing people into the new home market.

Plus, it’s unclear how long this recovery will last. Mortgage rates are now back up, with the 30-year averaging at 6.67%, per Mortgage News Daily, and the economic outlook looks bleak – both leading to possibly lower sales in the next month.

What the realtors said: “I’m quite surprised,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors said. “The recovery is coming stronger, [but] maybe it will deflate again if the mortgage rates get too high… [and] mortgage rates have a very big influence.”

Still, inventory levels are at historic lows, he added, and “consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.”

Existing-home sales which generally comprise 90% of the market, are losing market share to new homes, Yun noted. There are as many new homes as existing homes on the market, he said.

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1033 Leopold Dr, Eugene, OR 

Price: $625,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.5    SqFt: 2953

This Spacious Two Level Home Near Candlelight Park Is A Must See. Newly Remodeled. Features a wide open kitchen with quartz & granite countertops. All Stainless Steel Appliances. Large Living room with gas fireplace & built in cabinets. Upstairs fea...View this property >> 

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With all of the uncertainty created by recent bank failures, there may be some good news for mortgage interest rates that comes about as a result of the turmoil. Mortgage rates are tied closely to 10 year Treasury yields. As the 10 year declines, mortgage rates follow. There is also pressure on the Fed to hold any further rate increases. The combination of both could have positive results for mortgage loan rates now and down the road. The following is an article from "NAR" that talks about the current situation with mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates, which have risen more than half a percent over the last five weeks, fell last week amid fears about the sturdiness of the nation’s banking industry. Silicon Valley Bank and two others that primarily support the technology industry shuttered operations, sending shock waves through the U.S. economy.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 6.6% this week, Freddie Mac reports. That means most Americans can afford to buy a median-priced home and spend less than 25% of their gross income on their monthly mortgage payment—a gauge for measuring affordability—says Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research at the National Association of REALTORS®.

“Rates may decrease even further in the coming weeks, depending on reactions in the financial market and the outcome of the Fed’s meeting next week,” Evangelou adds. The Federal Reserve meets next week to decide the trajectory of its short-term benchmark interest rate and whether to continue or pull back on aggressive hikes.

Mortgage rates largely follow the course of 10-year Treasury yields, which have been falling ever since the announcement of the closures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital.

“Turbulence in the financial markets is putting significant downward pressure on rates, which should benefit borrowers in the short-term,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “During times of high mortgage rate volatility, home buyers would greatly benefit from shopping for additional rate quotes.”

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1636 Fetters Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $265,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1118

This move-in ready townhouse has been freshly updated w/ new interior paint & new carpet. Spacious kitchen w/ ample counter space & cabinetry. Two large bedrooms and a full bathroom upstairs. Laundry & half bathroom are on the main level. Enclosed p...View this property >> 

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As the nations economic condition worsens with the latest chapter of bank failures and the governments decision to bail out failed banks, the ability to purchase homes also worsens. With inflation number remaining high, mortgage interest rates continue to increase. This makes home affordability even tougher. We have all hoped that the trend of increasing mortgage rates would stabilize, but until the lid is put on inflation, this is not going to happen. The following is an article from "Realtor.com" that talks about the current situation with mortgage rates.

The numbers: Mortgage rates are up for the fourth week in a row.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.1%, up from 6.94% on Wednesday, according to the latest data of mortgage brokers released Thursday by Mortgage News Daily.

Mortgage News Daily says its index is driven by real-time changes in actual lender rate sheets.

Separately, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.65% as of March 2, up 15 basis points from the previous week, Freddie Mac also said Thursday.

The 30-year was last at this level in mid-November 2022. One basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point.

Last week, the 30-year was at 6.5%. Last year, the 30-year was averaging at 3.76%, Freddie Mac said.

Separately, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.65% as of March 2, up 15 basis points from the previous week, Freddie Mac also said Thursday.

The 30-year was last at this level in mid-November 2022. One basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point.

Last week, the 30-year was at 6.5%. Last year, the 30-year was averaging at 3.76%, Freddie Mac said.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

1636 Fetters Loop, Eugene, OR 

Price: $265,000    Beds: 2    Baths: 1.5    SqFt: 1118

This move-in ready townhouse has been freshly updated w/ new interior paint & new carpet. Spacious kitchen w/ ample counter space & cabinetry. Two large bedrooms and a full bathroom upstairs. Laundry & half bathroom are on the main level. Enclosed p...View this property >> 

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The Real Estate market in the Eugene and Springfield area remains interesting. Typically, when there is a downturn in the economy and mortgage interest rates rise, home prices come down. So far, that has not really been the situation in our local market. Statistically, home prices have remained steady and even in some price ranges and areas they have increased. The other odd situation is that in many situations, we are continuiung to see bidding wars. One home that sold last week went $83,000 over asking price. Another home had six offers and also went well above asking price. This is not the norm for a market like the one we currently find ourselves in. Much of the problem is lack of inventory. In many price ranges and areas, there just are not many homes on the market. I am again telling anyone thinking about selling a home to act now. In most situations, this is a great market for anyone selling an home. I will also warn home sellers to the fact that what you see right now, will not last for long. Here is a recent article from "Realtor.com", talking about the current mortgage loan market.

The numbers: Mortgage rates are up for the fourth week in a row.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.1%, up from 6.94% on Wednesday, according to the latest data of mortgage brokers released Thursday by Mortgage News Daily.

Mortgage News Daily says its index is driven by real-time changes in actual lender rate sheets.

Separately, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.65% as of March 2, up 15 basis points from the previous week, Freddie Mac also said Thursday.

The 30-year was last at this level in mid-November 2022. One basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point.

Last week, the 30-year was at 6.5%. Last year, the 30-year was averaging at 3.76%, Freddie Mac said.

The average rate on the 15-year mortgage rose to 5.89%, from 5.76% the previous week. The 15-year was at 3.01% a year ago.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates is based on thousands of applications received from lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage.

Separate data by Mortgage News Daily said that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was averaging at 6.94% as of Thursday morning.

Mortgage demand fell in the latest week as rates rose, according to a separate report by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications have dropped to the lowest level in 28 years.

What Freddie Mac said: “Given sustained economic growth and continued inflation, mortgage rates boomeranged and are inching up toward 7%,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a statement.

“Now that rates are moving up, affordability is hindered and making it difficult for potential buyers to act, particularly for repeat buyers with existing mortgages at less than half of current rates,” he added.

Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was trading above 4% during the afternoon trading session on Thursday.

Have An Awesome Week!

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

260 54th Street, Springfield, OR 

Price: $415,000    Beds: 4    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 2048

Great opportunity for a multi-family investment property. Both units are townhouse style with attached garages & separated backyards. Vinyl windows, newer flooring & spacious bedrooms. Convenient location near shopping & the bus line. Strict tenant...View this property >> 

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With our current slower economy and the continued inflation we are suffering through, many homeowners are cashing in on their home equity for a variety of reasons. Some are using the home equity that increased significantly prior to our current recession for home improvement, to pay off debt, to purchase autos, RV's or even take vacations. Home equity loans, "Helocs" are a great tool and and can certainly be used as a aid to help homeowners.  But, beware of how you use a "Heloc". There are some potentail pitfalls with using your home equity. The following article from "Realtor.com" will tell you about some of the "Heloc" benefits and some of the "Heloc" dangers.

Do you have a home equity loan or home equity line of credit (HELOC)? Homeowners often tap their home equity for some quick cash, using their property as collateral. But before doing so, you need to understand how this debt will be treated come tax season.

With the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the rules of home equity debt changed dramatically. Here’s what you need to know about home equity loan taxes when you file this year.

Acquisition debt vs. home equity debt: What’s the difference?

For starters, it’s important to understand “acquisition debt” versus “home equity debt.”

“Acquisition debt is a loan to buy, build, or improve a primary or second home, and is secured by the home,” says Amy Jucoski, a certified financial planner and national planning manager at Abbot Downing.

That phrase “buy, build, or improve” is key. Most original mortgages are acquisition debt, because you’re using the money to buy a house. But money used to build or renovate your home is also considered acquisition debt, since it will likely raise the value of your property.

Home equity debt, however, is something different.

“It’s if the proceeds are used for something other than buying, building, or substantially improving a home,” says Jucoski.

For instance, if you borrowed against your home to pay for college, a wedding, vacation, budding business, or anything else, then that counts as home equity debt.

This distinction is important to get straight, particularly since you might have a home equity loan or HELOC that’s notconsidered home equity debt, at least in the eyes of the IRS.

If your home equity loan or HELOC is used to go snorkeling in Cancun or open an art gallery, then that’s home equity debt. However, if you’re using your home equity loan or HELOC to overhaul your kitchen or add a half-bath to your house, then it’s acquisition debt.

And as of now, Uncle Sam is far kinder to acquisition debt than home equity debt used for non-property-related pursuits.

Have An Awesome Week!

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THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

260 54th Street, Springfield, OR 

Price: $415,000    Beds: 4    Baths: 2.0    SqFt: 2048

Great opportunity for a multi-family investment property. Both units are townhouse style with attached garages & separated backyards. Vinyl windows, newer flooring & spacious bedrooms. Convenient location near shopping & the bus line. Strict tenant...View this property >> 

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The number of new housing starts both nationally and locally are continuing to dip.  This would be expected with any downturn in the economy.  Another issue with new construction is that the cost of new housing is also increasing and making new homes less affordable to would be buyers.  This is not good for anyone in the business of building new homes or supplying material for new homes. Home construction is also one of the key elements for maintaining a healthy economy and when housing starts dip, it typically has a major effect on the overall economy. The lack of affordable new housing also has an effect on existing housing.  A decrease in new homes on the market will typically help keep exising home demand higher and help uphold existing home values.  It will be interesting to see what happens with new home starts as we enter the time of year when new home construction typically peaks.  The following article is from "Realtor.com" that talks about the national market for new homes.

The numbers: Construction on new U.S. homes fell a seasonally adjusted 4.5% in January to 1.31 million, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The drop in construction on homes follows the decline in December, when housing starts also fell by 3.4%

The drop was larger than what Wall Street expected. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected housing starts to drop to a 1.35 million rate from December’s initial estimate of 1.38 million.

Construction is at the lowest level since June 2020, during the depths of the coronavirus pandemic. Starts have also fallen for the fifth month in a row.

The annual rate of total housing starts fell from 27.3% from the previous year.

In December, housing starts were revised to a drop of 3.4% of 1.37 million, as compared to a previous drop of 1.4%.

Building permits for new homes rose 0.1% to 1.34 million in January.

Economists had expected building permits to rise to a 1.35 million rate from December’s initial estimate of 1.34 million.

Key details: On an unadjusted basis, housing starts fell 1% in January.

The construction pace of single-family homes fell 4.3% in January and apartments fell 5.4%.

Permits for single-family homes fell 1.8% in January, while permits in buildings with at least five units rose by 0.5%.

Notably, permits for middle housing, or buildings with 2 to 4 housing units like townhomes, rose by 26.1%.

Regionally, construction of homes rose the most in the south and the west.

Single-family construction in the south led the jump with a 11.6% increase. The northeast and west regions reported a drop in single-family construction.

Big picture: The housing starts data likely reflects builders’ subdued sentiment from back in January, when they were only slowly becoming confident that buyers would return.

Builders have since become even more confident that sales of new homes will increase, and are signaling that they will ramp up production in the months ahead.

What are they saying? “Strong economic data (retail sales and jobs report) from January mean the Fed is likely to raise the fed funds rate higher than previously expected to get inflation under control,” Abbey Omodunbi, senior economist at PNC, wrote in a note.

And “this will put upward pressure on mortgage rates and slow housing demand even further this year,” he added.

The company is expecting home prices to fall by 12% in 2023.

“Home builders continue to face a raft of headwinds including worker shortages and fading housing demand,” Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, senior economist at BMO Economics, wrote in a note. “And, with rates likely to stay high for some time, homebuilders are not out of the woods… yet.”

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THIS WEEKS HOT PROPERTIES FOR SALE!

320 Mountaingate Dr, Springfield, OR 

Price: $125,000    Acres: 0.23

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340 Mountaingate Dr, Springfield, OR 

Price: $140,000    Acres: 0.25

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AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!