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Galand Haas

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Monday Morning Real estate Update 2/26/07

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

Winter-Spring-Winter-Spring!  The weather can't make it's mind up.  One thing that is for sure is that the month of March in Oregon will bring more of the same!

Is the Real Estate market in the Eugene and Springfield area strong or slow?  Well, just like March weather, it depends on the mood that week. We are seeing great activity one week and then the next week it's just very slow.  This is because our market is just downright inconsistent right now.  Buyers are fickle and just the slightest events or things can quickly change the mood of the market.  The interesting part of this may be watching which direction we head for the duration of the year.  One thing that I can say is that right now is a very good time to take advantage of softer home prices and good mortgage interest rates.  Inventories of homes for sale remain high, so there is a very good selection out there. 

If you wish to go on our automated e-mail home search log onto www.forhomeinfo.com. This system will automatically update you daily by e-mail with complete information on homes meeting your search criteria as they hit the market.  This system updates each day at 5:30 a.m., so you will typically know about new homes hitting the market even before the agents do.

Have An Awesome Week!

Monday Morning Real Estate Update 2/19/07

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

Saturday certainly gave a a sneak preview of Spring.  There is lots more of this weather on it's way.

"Don't look for any huge upswings in the Real Estate market nationally"!  This was the statement that was made over an over at the national Real Estate convention I attended last week.  This news is not all bad, because the culprit for our slower market is the fact that home prices have increased much faster than the buyers ability to purchase them has. Our current situation will slow that process down.  Most likely we will not see a strong market again until home prices and home buyers ability to purchase are in sync once again. 

This does mean that for home buyers today, there are bettter deals on homes and the prices will most likely be soft for some time to come.  For those selling a home this market demands proper home pricing. If sellers do not have their home priced in line with the market and the competion, their chances of selling will be slim.

Have An Awesome Week!

 



AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Sincerely,
Galand

Monday Morning Real Estate Update 2/12/07

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

The Real Estate market in the Eugene and Springfield area continues to be somewhat stronger.  Even with the slight increase in mortgage interest rates there seems to be more home buyer interest.  For home buyers this really is a great time.  Home prices are certainly softer and there is a fairly good inventory of homes to choose from. 

If you are thinking of purchasing a home, make sure that you explore your mortgage loan options.  We have watched many buyers go into loan situations that become very negative several years later.  Know your options and do some research before you just take out a mortgage loan.  If you have any questions on mortgages or would like to have a top mortgage loan professional recommended, please e-mail or call me.

Have An Awesome Week!

 



AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Sincerely,
Galand

A Great Video of Man Flying

by Galand Haas

Monday Morning Real Estate Update 2/5/07

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

The Sunny weather just keeps coming!  You have to love that!

The home sales statistics are now in for December of 2006.  Not only was the number of new homes hitting the market down from December of 2005, but the number of homes sold went from 345 to 281,which is an 18.6% decrease.  This is a sharp decrease in homes sales.  The average time it took a home to sell increased from 45 days in December of 2005 to 68 days in December of 2006.  Again, the average sales price actually went up as sales slumped.  The average sales price for December of 2005 was $233,200 and for December of 2006 it had increased to $267,300. 

Have An Awesome Week!

 



AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Sincerely,
Galand

Monday Morning Real Estate Update 1/29/07

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

What a grorgeous and Sunny weekend it was!  It looks like more of the same for the week ahead.

The National Association of Realtors released their statistics for national home sales last week.  The second half of 2005 saw a significant decline in home sales nationally.  The fourth quarter of last  year saw the largest change.  The one thing that stands out is that the Eugene and Springfield area home market is holding up much better than  the overall national market.  From all indications, the market here is actually beginning to heat up again.  This is something that most other parts of the country will be envious about. 

Have An Awesome Week!

 



AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Sincerely,
Galand

Nationa Home Sales Update 1/29/07

by Galand Haas

Home sales fall; show faint life-signs By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
Fri Jan 26, 6:34 PM ET
 


WASHINGTON - New home sales fell in 2006 by the largest amount in 16 years, but they were up for a second straight month in December, raising hopes that the worst of the housing downturn is coming to an end.

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The        Commerce Department reported Friday that sales last month rose by 4.8 percent, following an even bigger 7.4 percent rise in November.

Those two increases, however, were not enough to salvage the entire year, with total sales of 1.06 million units, down 17.3 percent from 2005. That marked the biggest decline since a 17.8 percent plunge in the housing downturn of 1990.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average had another down day, falling by 15.54 points to close the week at 12,487.02.

The housing bust is occurring after a boom in which sales of both new and existing homes set records for five consecutive years. The lowest mortgage rates in four decades powered a surge in sales that was bolstered by investors making purchases in hopes of turning around and reselling the properties for quick profits.

Analysts attributed the big declines in 2006 to a cooling of that speculative boom. That reversal has given the housing industry its toughest downturn since the recession of 1990.

The slowdown trimmed 1.2 percentage points off overall economic growth in the July-September quarter. Analysts are looking for an equally severe hit in the final three months of the year, with housing expected to be a continuing drag in the first half of 2007.

The downturn has meant a break for home buyers, as double-digit price gains during the boom years have slowed considerably.

The median price of a new home sold in 2006 rose by 1.8 percent to $245,300. That was far below the 9 percent price gain turned in during 2005.

David Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said he looked for home prices to continue to be depressed in 2007 as builders scramble to reduce near-record levels of unsold homes.

He said his organization's January survey of builder sentiment showed continued extensive use of incentives to clear the backlog, with 60 percent of builders surveyed offering optional items such as kitchen upgrades or decks at no charge. That's up from 41 percent at the beginning of 2006.

Other incentives include paying closing costs, which 52 percent of builders said they were doing, up from 31 percent a year ago, and paying purchasers' financing points on loans, something 30 percent of builders in the survey said they were doing.

Seiders said he looked for new home sales to be essentially flat for 2007. He predicted that new home construction, which fell by 12.9 percent last year, will fall by another 14 percent in 2007.

The cutback in building has led to thousands of job layoffs in the construction industry.

The report on new homes followed a report Thursday that sales of existing homes dropped by 8.4 percent last year to 6.48 million units. That's the biggest decline in sales of previously owned homes since 1989.

New home sales were up in all parts of the country in December except the West, which posted a 4.4 percent drop. Sales rose by 27.3 percent in the Northeast, 26.6 percent in the Midwest and a much smaller 0.3 percent in the South.

Analysts cautioned that part of the strength seen in November and December could be weather-related, given the unusually warm temperatures during those two months.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said that orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rose in December by 3.1 percent, the largest gain in three months.

The increase was led by a huge jump in demand for commercial aircraft and the biggest increase in orders for cars and trucks in more than two years. That gives hope that manufacturing activity will not be seriously affected by the housing-led slowdown.

Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods posted a solid 2.3 percent increase, the best showing in this category since last March. It's also much better than analysts had been expecting.

For all of 2006, new orders rose by 7 percent, a slight slowdown from an 8.6 percent increase in 2005.

Economic growth slowed to a lackluster 2 percent in the July-September quarter, raising concerns that the steep slump in housing could trigger an outright recession.

However, in recent weeks a number of reports have shown the year ended with stronger-than-expected activity, easing worries about such a general slowdown. Many analysts now believe the overall economy grew at a respectable 3 percent rate in the October-December period, a figure that the government will release next Wednesday

Monday Morning Real Estate Update 1/22/07

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

What a gorgeous weekend it was!  We all deserved it following the snow and ice of the prior weekend.

The statistics are in reflecting on last years Real Estate market in the Eugene and Springfield area.  The Median home price in 2006 rose 15% to $225,000.00.  This was in comparison to a 25% increase for the previous year.  The average time it took a home to sell was 53 days in 2006 in comparison to 45 days in the prior year.  The average time for a home to sell had increased even further to 68 days by December of 2006.  The inventory of homes on the market for sale also increased from 2.3 months in 2005 to an average of 3.3 months in 2006.  This means that if no new homes hit the market it would take this number of months to exhaust the existing supply of homes for sale. 

Have An Awesome Week!

 



AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Sincerely,
Galand

National Mortgage News 1/16/07

by Galand Haas
Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.
 

 

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

 

"DISAPPOINTMENT PROVES...THAT EXPECTATIONS WERE MISTAKEN." Mason Cooley And sure enough, the disappointing performance of Bond prices and home loan rates last week was largely the result of some unexpected news and data, which left home loan rates about .125% higher across the board.

Remember that "good" economic news tends to be "bad" for Bond prices and home loan rates for two reasons. First, because Stocks and Bonds compete for the same investor dollar - and good economic news would cause many investors to pull money out of Bonds and place it into Stocks, which generally benefit from a healthy economy. Second, good news for the US economy can also mean inflation, which is the arch-enemy of Bond prices and home loan rates, since inflation erodes the true value of a fixed return such as a Bond provides.

So back to the news - unexpectedly positive news for the housing sector arrived in the form of the Mortgage Applications Index, showing the largest percentage increases in home loan applications for purchasing and refinancing since the middle of 2005. Why was this bad news for Bonds and home loan rates? Because Bonds react poorly to potentially inflationary news, and the increase in home loan applications point to a healthier housing sector and economy - which could lead to inflation. But the real good news is that this also indicates that home loan rates are favorable, and most markets are stabilizing in terms of home values. In fact, many experts feel that August of 2006 was the bottom for the housing market. So if you have been thinking about investigating a purchase or refinance, now may be the time - give me a call or email and let me know how I can help.

More hot economic news - Retail Sales in general were on fire, and when factoring out vehicle purchases, it was the best number in over a year. Again, more good economic news, but not good for Bond prices or home loan rates.

As if that weren't enough, another unexpected event arrived when the Bank of England (like our Federal Reserve Bank) surprised international financial markets by raising its benchmark interest rate (like our Fed Funds Rate) by .25%, sparking a sharp drop in their markets as investors became rattled. The sharp sell-off in Great Britain quickly spilled over to the US, as their rates are on par with ours, and will now become more competitive investments as compared to our own US Bonds.

HERE'S SOME MORE GOOD NEWS - IT'S TAX TIME! OH...YOU MEAN YOU DON'T ENJOY GATHERING ALL YOUR FINANCIAL AND TAX DOCUMENTS? OK, MOST PEOPLE DON'T - BUT THE TIPS FOUND IN THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW WILL HELP YOU GET THROUGH THE PROCESS QUICKLY AND EFFICIENTLY, AND GET TO THE REAL GOOD NEWS - A COMPLETED 2006 TAX RETURN.

 

Forecast for the Week Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

 

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

 

"I'VE FALLEN...AND I CAN'T GET UP!" (Bond prices, last week) And when Bond prices fall, home loan rates are on the rise. But could Bonds get to their feet this week and help home loan rates improve? This coming week will certainly provide some "juice" to trade on, and likely cause some motion - but the direction of that movement will fully depend on the flavor of the news.

Remember that Bonds and home loan rates hate inflation...and some big inflation news is in store with the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. There will also be news from the Manufacturing sector sprinkled throughout the week, and Housing will gain some attention on Thursday with the latest Housing Starts and Building Permits data. If the economic data comes in suggesting a slower economy and lower inflation, Bonds will likely regain their legs and help home loan rates improve. But if the news has that familiar scent of inflation...Bond prices will head lower and home loan rates will worsen.

The chart below shows the "floors" that can help to support Bonds from falling too far down on Bond and home loan rate unfriendly news...but also shows that Bond pricing fell right through two floors last week, causing home loan rates to rise.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 12, 2007)

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.
            Japanese Candlestick Chart

 

The Mortgage Market View... Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

 

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

 

THE TAX MAN COMETH

It's that time again...time to start gathering all of that dreaded documentation for your tax preparer to send to good old Uncle Sam! And even though this may seem like a very painful process, taking just a few simple steps right now will make your tax planning far less painful than you think.

STEP ONE: Start by reviewing a copy of last year's tax return, and make a quick list of all the documents or statements that were needed to complete the return. Examples would be W2 forms from employers, 1099 forms for income earned but with no withholding for taxes, 1098 forms documenting all interest paid on a mortgage, interest and dividend income from banks and other financial institutions, a statement for stocks and bonds that were sold during the year, donations that were made to charities, and property tax statements. Many tax accountants will provide a checklist for you, but if you do not have access to one, simply hit this hotlink: TAX PREP CHECKLIST and use this generic checklist as a guide.

STEP TWO: In the coming weeks, you'll be receiving tax documents in the mail. Some will be easy to identify, as many institutions use envelopes marked "Important Tax Document", but others do not - so check all your incoming mail very carefully. When a tax document arrives, grab your checklist, mark the item as received, and keep it all in one place like a file or large envelope marked "2006 TAXES". That way, when it is time to meet with your accountant, all documents will be stored in one location.

NOTE: the IRS rules require that most tax documentation like W2's be mailed out to you by January 31st. If you do not receive all needed tax documentation by February 15th, contact the company that was supposed to send it out, and request the documentation be mailed immediately. If the company fails to comply, contact the IRS at 1-800-829-1040 for help. Additionally, if a statement is received and the amount reported appears to be incorrect, contact the company who sent it to you right away, and ask that the form be corrected. Within a few days a new form should be mailed, and when received it will be marked "Corrected".

With the tax laws constantly changing and the complexity of filing taxes increasing every day...having a great tax accountant will save you time and money. In fact, most tax accountants find enough missed deductions or changes to more than cover their nominal fees. And, working with a professional can help ensure that your return is as accurate as possible, and may help avoid a painful audit. During 2006, audits for individuals increased by 6% across the board. Business owners need to be on their toes too, as audits for Partnerships increased by 15%, and S-Corporations by 34%!

It pays to invest in working with a tax professional. If you are in need of a referral, contact me - I'd be happy to help provide one to you.

 

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

 

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

 

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 15 – January 19

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Tue. January 16

08:30

Empire State Index

Dec

20.0

 

23.1

Moderate

Wed. January 17

08:30

Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

Dec

0.1%

 

1.3%

HIGH

Wed. January 17

08:30

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Dec

0.6%

 

2.0%

Moderate

Wed. January 17

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Dec

81.8%

 

81.8%

Moderate

Wed. January 17

09:15

Industrial Production

Dec

0.1%

 

0.2%

Moderate

Wed. January 17

10:30

Crude Inventories

1/12

NA

 

-4990K

Moderate

Wed. January 17

02:00

Beige Book

 

 

 

 

Moderate

Thu. January 18

08:30

Building Permits

Dec

1510K

 

1513K

Moderate

Thu. January 18

08:30

Housing Starts

Dec

1575K

 

1588K

Moderate

Thu. January 18

08:30

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Dec

0.5%

 

0.0%

HIGH

Thu. January 18

08:30

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Dec

0.2%

 

0.0%

Moderate

Thu. January 18

08:15

Jobless Claims (Initial)

1/12

315K

 

299K

Moderate

Thu. January 18

10:00

Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI)

Dec

0.2%

 

0.1%

Low

Thu. January 18

12:00

Philadelphia Fed Index

Dec

3.0

 

-4.3

HIGH

Fri. January 19

10:00

Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)

Jan

92.0

 

91.7

Moderate

 

 

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

Monday Morning Real Estate Update 1/15/07

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

The white stuff just keeps hanging around!  It's been many years since we have had snow on the ground for this length of time in the Eugene and Springfield area.

The Real Estate market here remains level.  There really has been little change for the past few weeks with the total number of homes on the market and the average number of days it currently takes homes to sell.  Compared to many other parts of the country the Real Estate market here looks very good.  Don't look for any huge changes over the next few weeks.  For home sellers there is a good window of opportunity to sell from now through April.  Typically, we will see the number of homes for sale increase significantly as Spring nears.  This could make for a much more competitive market and softer sales prices this year.

Have An Awesome Week!

 



AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Sincerely,
Galand

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Galand Haas Team
Keller Williams Realty Eugene and Springfield
2644 Suzanne Way
Eugene OR 97408
Direct: (541) 349-2620
Fax: 541-687-6411

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